US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian regime targets, including a major wave hitting Tehran on March 29, continue unabated into day 30 of the conflict that began February 28, fueling trader consensus at 96.8% odds for military action persisting through March 31. Iran's over 80 retaliatory missile and drone waves at Israel and US bases, coupled with Houthi attacks on Israel yesterday and new US troop deployments amid rising casualties, signal no imminent de-escalation despite President Trump's comments on rapid progress. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects sustained escalation absent any verified ceasefire talks, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral halt could shift dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоВоенные действия до 31 марта 96.8%
31 марта 1.3%
30 марта <1%
29 марта <1%
$2,859,755 Объем
$2,859,755 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
29 марта
<1%
30 марта
1%
31 марта
1%
Военные действия до 31 марта
97%
Военные действия до 31 марта 96.8%
31 марта 1.3%
30 марта <1%
29 марта <1%
$2,859,755 Объем
$2,859,755 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
29 марта
$310,778 Объем
<1%
30 марта
$289,372 Объем
1%
31 марта
$418,401 Объем
1%
Военные действия до 31 марта
$693,316 Объем
97%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian regime targets, including a major wave hitting Tehran on March 29, continue unabated into day 30 of the conflict that began February 28, fueling trader consensus at 96.8% odds for military action persisting through March 31. Iran's over 80 retaliatory missile and drone waves at Israel and US bases, coupled with Houthi attacks on Israel yesterday and new US troop deployments amid rising casualties, signal no imminent de-escalation despite President Trump's comments on rapid progress. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects sustained escalation absent any verified ceasefire talks, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral halt could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Объем
$2,859,755Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian regime targets, including a major wave hitting Tehran on March 29, continue unabated into day 30 of the conflict that began February 28, fueling trader consensus at 96.8% odds for military action persisting through March 31. Iran's over 80 retaliatory missile and drone waves at Israel and US bases, coupled with Houthi attacks on Israel yesterday and new US troop deployments amid rising casualties, signal no imminent de-escalation despite President Trump's comments on rapid progress. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects sustained escalation absent any verified ceasefire talks, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral halt could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,859,755Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian regime targets, including a major wave hitting Tehran on March 29, continue unabated into day 30 of the conflict that began February 28, fueling trader consensus at 96.8% odds for military action persisting through March 31. Iran's over 80 retaliatory missile and drone waves at Israel and US bases, coupled with Houthi attacks on Israel yesterday and new US troop deployments amid rising casualties, signal no imminent de-escalation despite President Trump's comments on rapid progress. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects sustained escalation absent any verified ceasefire talks, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or unilateral halt could shift dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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