Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоВоенные действия до 31 марта 95%
31 марта 1.7%
30 марта 1.7%
29 марта 1.4%
$2,550,720 Объем
$2,550,720 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
26 марта
<1%
27 марта
<1%
28 марта
<1%
29 марта
1%
30 марта
2%
31 марта
2%
Военные действия до 31 марта
95%
Военные действия до 31 марта 95%
31 марта 1.7%
30 марта 1.7%
29 марта 1.4%
$2,550,720 Объем
$2,550,720 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
26 марта
$326,382 Объем
<1%
27 марта
$330,972 Объем
<1%
28 марта
$307,560 Объем
<1%
29 марта
$266,296 Объем
1%
30 марта
$273,803 Объем
2%
31 марта
$360,235 Объем
2%
Военные действия до 31 марта
$552,852 Объем
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Объем
$2,550,720Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,550,720Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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