Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites producing ballistic missiles, marking a calibrated response to Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 missiles at Israel and ongoing proxy attacks via Hezbollah and Houthis. No further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past two weeks, as Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact and delayed retaliation amid US diplomatic urging for de-escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Proxy conflicts persist in Gaza, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, but trader consensus reflects restraint signals from both sides, with the election outcome potentially influencing future escalation risks, US arms support, or sanctions policy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$149,961 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
3%
March 29
4%
March 30
4%
March 31
6%
15 апреля
31%
30 апреля
54%
31 мая
53%
30 июня
77%
$149,961 Объем
March 26
$19,977 Объем
<1%
March 27
$7,785 Объем
<1%
March 28
$13,763 Объем
3%
March 29
$20,021 Объем
4%
March 30
$16,141 Объем
4%
March 31
$71,938 Объем
6%
15 апреля
$489 Объем
31%
30 апреля
$2 Объем
54%
31 мая
$152 Объем
53%
30 июня
$2 Объем
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites producing ballistic missiles, marking a calibrated response to Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 missiles at Israel and ongoing proxy attacks via Hezbollah and Houthis. No further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past two weeks, as Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact and delayed retaliation amid US diplomatic urging for de-escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Proxy conflicts persist in Gaza, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, but trader consensus reflects restraint signals from both sides, with the election outcome potentially influencing future escalation risks, US arms support, or sanctions policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 13, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Объем
$149,961Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites producing ballistic missiles, marking a calibrated response to Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 missiles at Israel and ongoing proxy attacks via Hezbollah and Houthis. No further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past two weeks, as Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact and delayed retaliation amid US diplomatic urging for de-escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Proxy conflicts persist in Gaza, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, but trader consensus reflects restraint signals from both sides, with the election outcome potentially influencing future escalation risks, US arms support, or sanctions policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$149,961Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites producing ballistic missiles, marking a calibrated response to Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 missiles at Israel and ongoing proxy attacks via Hezbollah and Houthis. No further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past two weeks, as Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact and delayed retaliation amid US diplomatic urging for de-escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Proxy conflicts persist in Gaza, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, but trader consensus reflects restraint signals from both sides, with the election outcome potentially influencing future escalation risks, US arms support, or sanctions policy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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