Trader consensus prices Democrats at 92% to win the Illinois Senate seat, reflecting the state's entrenched Democratic dominance and strong incumbency advantage for Dick Durbin, whose term ends in 2027. Illinois' partisan lean—Cook PVI D+7, with recent U.S. Senate margins exceeding 14 points for Democrats like Tammy Duckworth in 2022—anchors this positioning, bolstered by superior fundraising and weak Republican recruitment to date. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days, including primaries still over a year away in March 2026. Challenges could arise from Durbin retirement, a high-profile GOP entrant, national midterm wave dynamics, or scandals eroding Democratic turnout in Chicago suburbs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат штата Иллинойс
Победитель выборов в Сенат штата Иллинойс
$16,486 Объем
$16,486 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Демократ
92%
Республиканец
6%
$16,486 Объем
$16,486 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Демократ
$7,188 Объем
92%
Республиканец
$9,298 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices Democrats at 92% to win the Illinois Senate seat, reflecting the state's entrenched Democratic dominance and strong incumbency advantage for Dick Durbin, whose term ends in 2027. Illinois' partisan lean—Cook PVI D+7, with recent U.S. Senate margins exceeding 14 points for Democrats like Tammy Duckworth in 2022—anchors this positioning, bolstered by superior fundraising and weak Republican recruitment to date. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days, including primaries still over a year away in March 2026. Challenges could arise from Durbin retirement, a high-profile GOP entrant, national midterm wave dynamics, or scandals eroding Democratic turnout in Chicago suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$16,486Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices Democrats at 92% to win the Illinois Senate seat, reflecting the state's entrenched Democratic dominance and strong incumbency advantage for Dick Durbin, whose term ends in 2027. Illinois' partisan lean—Cook PVI D+7, with recent U.S. Senate margins exceeding 14 points for Democrats like Tammy Duckworth in 2022—anchors this positioning, bolstered by superior fundraising and weak Republican recruitment to date. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days, including primaries still over a year away in March 2026. Challenges could arise from Durbin retirement, a high-profile GOP entrant, national midterm wave dynamics, or scandals eroding Democratic turnout in Chicago suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$16,486Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Democrats at 92% to win the Illinois Senate seat, reflecting the state's entrenched Democratic dominance and strong incumbency advantage for Dick Durbin, whose term ends in 2027. Illinois' partisan lean—Cook PVI D+7, with recent U.S. Senate margins exceeding 14 points for Democrats like Tammy Duckworth in 2022—anchors this positioning, bolstered by superior fundraising and weak Republican recruitment to date. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days, including primaries still over a year away in March 2026. Challenges could arise from Durbin retirement, a high-profile GOP entrant, national midterm wave dynamics, or scandals eroding Democratic turnout in Chicago suburbs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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