Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors David Jolly at 68.5% for the Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary winner, propelled by his high-profile announcement to run in the 2026 cycle as a former Republican congressman who switched parties, leveraging national visibility from CNN commentary and strong early fundraising signals. Jerry Demings trails at 13.6%, supported by his record as Orange County Sheriff and broad appeal in a swing state emphasizing public safety. The field remains fragmented among state House members Fentrice Driskell (6.1%), Shevrin Jones (4.9%), Angie Nixon (4.2%), Jason Pizzo (3.9%), former Rep. Gwen Graham (3.6%), and Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava (2.9%). Recent Jolly donor buzz and lack of incumbent challenges sustain his lead, though early-stage dynamics could shift with formal filings ahead.