Recent polls, including Ideia’s April 3–7 survey showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.8% to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45.5% in a simulated second-round runoff, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote. Lula maintains slim first-round leads across late-March and early-April polling averages (38–46% vs. Flávio’s 35–40%), buoyed by incumbency and PT organizational strength, but Flávio’s rise leverages the enduring Bolsonaro brand among conservative voters amid economic headwinds and Lula’s dipping approval. High undecided shares (8–12%) and voter volatility sustain the deadlock; catalysts like Lula’s candidacy confirmation, economic indicators, or gubernatorial endorsements could tip the balance toward a runoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva 41%
Флавио Болсонару 37.2%
Ренан Сантос 6.7%
Фернандо Хаддад 4.8%
$46,324,095 Объем
$46,324,095 Объем
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
41%
Флавио Болсонару
37%
Ренан Сантос
7%
Фернандо Хаддад
5%
Камилу Сантана
3%
Роналду Кайаду
2%
Ромеу Земма
2%
Жаир Болсонару
1%
Жералду Алкмин
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Эдуардо Болсонару
<1%
Ратиньо Жуниор
<1%
Эдуарду Лейте
<1%
Алдо Ребелу
<1%
Тарцисио де Фрейтас
<1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 41%
Флавио Болсонару 37.2%
Ренан Сантос 6.7%
Фернандо Хаддад 4.8%
$46,324,095 Объем
$46,324,095 Объем
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
41%
Флавио Болсонару
37%
Ренан Сантос
7%
Фернандо Хаддад
5%
Камилу Сантана
3%
Роналду Кайаду
2%
Ромеу Земма
2%
Жаир Болсонару
1%
Жералду Алкмин
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Эдуардо Болсонару
<1%
Ратиньо Жуниор
<1%
Эдуарду Лейте
<1%
Алдо Ребелу
<1%
Тарцисио де Фрейтас
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including Ideia’s April 3–7 survey showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.8% to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45.5% in a simulated second-round runoff, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote. Lula maintains slim first-round leads across late-March and early-April polling averages (38–46% vs. Flávio’s 35–40%), buoyed by incumbency and PT organizational strength, but Flávio’s rise leverages the enduring Bolsonaro brand among conservative voters amid economic headwinds and Lula’s dipping approval. High undecided shares (8–12%) and voter volatility sustain the deadlock; catalysts like Lula’s candidacy confirmation, economic indicators, or gubernatorial endorsements could tip the balance toward a runoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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