President-elect Donald Trump has expressed openness to direct negotiations with Iran to curb its nuclear program and end regional conflicts, echoing his first-term "maximum pressure" strategy that included sanctions and the Soleimani strike, but Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has explicitly forbidden talks with the incoming administration, as reiterated in recent speeches. Mojtaba Khamenei, the leader's influential second son and deputy head of IRGC intelligence—not an official diplomat—remains a behind-the-scenes figure with no public record of engaging U.S. leaders, fueling speculation about potential backchannels amid post-election tensions like Iran's missile barrages on Israel. Traders weigh slim odds against Khamenei's firm stance, Trump's deal-making rhetoric, and upcoming inauguration on January 20, 2025, which could prompt early diplomatic signals or escalations.