Market icon
Mundo·Presidência Trump

Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?

Market icon
Mundo·Presidência Trump

Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$4,260,267 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$4,260,267 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de março

$3,931,344 Vol.

<1%

30 de abril

$28,544 Vol.

2%

31 de dezembro

$300,379 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.No formal US declaration of war on Iran has occurred, as Article I of the Constitution requires congressional approval—a high bar unmet since World War II, with presidents relying instead on authorizations like the 2001 AUMF for military actions. Recent tensions stem from Iran's April 2024 direct missile strikes on Israel, US defensive support via airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, and proxy escalations involving Hezbollah and Hamas amid the Gaza conflict, yet diplomatic channels remain open through intermediaries like Oman. Incoming President Trump's campaign rhetoric on "obliterating" Iran's nuclear sites has fueled speculation, but no concrete executive actions or congressional moves signal imminent declaration before key dates; watch for post-inauguration policy shifts or escalation triggers like further Iranian attacks. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability absent major catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,260,267
Data de Término
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.No formal US declaration of war on Iran has occurred, as Article I of the Constitution requires congressional approval—a high bar unmet since World War II, with presidents relying instead on authorizations like the 2001 AUMF for military actions. Recent tensions stem from Iran's April 2024 direct missile strikes on Israel, US defensive support via airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, and proxy escalations involving Hezbollah and Hamas amid the Gaza conflict, yet diplomatic channels remain open through intermediaries like Oman. Incoming President Trump's campaign rhetoric on "obliterating" Iran's nuclear sites has fueled speculation, but no concrete executive actions or congressional moves signal imminent declaration before key dates; watch for post-inauguration policy shifts or escalation triggers like further Iranian attacks. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability absent major catalysts.

No formal US declaration of war on Iran has occurred, as Article I of the Constitution requires congressional approval—a high bar unmet since World War II, with presidents relying instead on authorizations like the 2001 AUMF for military actions. Recent tensions stem from Iran's April 2024 direct missile strikes on Israel, US defensive support via airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, and proxy escalations involving Hezbollah and Hamas amid the Gaza conflict, yet diplomatic channels remain open through intermediaries like Oman. Incoming President Trump's campaign rhetoric on "obliterating" Iran's nuclear sites has fueled speculation, but no concrete executive actions or congressional moves signal imminent declaration before key dates; watch for post-inauguration policy shifts or escalation triggers like further Iranian attacks. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability absent major catalysts.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 10%, followed by "30 de abril" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?" has generated $4.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?" is "31 de dezembro" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30 de abril" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA declararão oficialmente guerra ao Irã até...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.