SOFR traded tightly between 3.62% and 3.71% throughout March 2026, closely tracking the effective federal funds rate near 3.64% within the FOMC's unchanged 3.50%-3.75% target range after the March 18 policy hold amid balanced inflation and labor market risks. Repo market liquidity remained ample, with no Treasury issuance strains or quarter-end pressures causing spikes, anchoring trader consensus on mid-3.6% levels as reflected in Polymarket's skin-in-the-game probabilities. Resolution hinged on New York Fed daily publications to two decimals; future paths now pivot to April CPI data, nonfarm payrolls, and the April 29-30 FOMC meeting for rate cut signals influencing short-term funding dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO SOFR atingirá __ em março?
O SOFR atingirá __ em março?
$19,774 Vol.
31 mar 2026
↑3,80
Não
↑3,78%
Não
↑3,76%
Não
↑3,74%
Não
↑3,72%
Não
↓3,68%
Sim
↓3,66%
Sim
↓3,64%
Sim
↓3,62%
Sim
↓3,60%
Não
↓3,58%
Não
$19,774 Vol.
↑3,80
$2,351 Vol.
Não
↑3,78%
$1,955 Vol.
Não
↑3,76%
$955 Vol.
Não
↑3,74%
$1,763 Vol.
Não
↑3,72%
$2,857 Vol.
Não
↓3,68%
$0 Vol.
Sim
↓3,66%
$0 Vol.
Sim
↓3,64%
$0 Vol.
Sim
↓3,62%
$0 Vol.
Sim
↓3,60%
$5,221 Vol.
Não
↓3,58%
$4,673 Vol.
Não
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.SOFR traded tightly between 3.62% and 3.71% throughout March 2026, closely tracking the effective federal funds rate near 3.64% within the FOMC's unchanged 3.50%-3.75% target range after the March 18 policy hold amid balanced inflation and labor market risks. Repo market liquidity remained ample, with no Treasury issuance strains or quarter-end pressures causing spikes, anchoring trader consensus on mid-3.6% levels as reflected in Polymarket's skin-in-the-game probabilities. Resolution hinged on New York Fed daily publications to two decimals; future paths now pivot to April CPI data, nonfarm payrolls, and the April 29-30 FOMC meeting for rate cut signals influencing short-term funding dynamics.
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
Volume
$19,774Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.SOFR traded tightly between 3.62% and 3.71% throughout March 2026, closely tracking the effective federal funds rate near 3.64% within the FOMC's unchanged 3.50%-3.75% target range after the March 18 policy hold amid balanced inflation and labor market risks. Repo market liquidity remained ample, with no Treasury issuance strains or quarter-end pressures causing spikes, anchoring trader consensus on mid-3.6% levels as reflected in Polymarket's skin-in-the-game probabilities. Resolution hinged on New York Fed daily publications to two decimals; future paths now pivot to April CPI data, nonfarm payrolls, and the April 29-30 FOMC meeting for rate cut signals influencing short-term funding dynamics.
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$19,774Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
SOFR traded tightly between 3.62% and 3.71% throughout March 2026, closely tracking the effective federal funds rate near 3.64% within the FOMC's unchanged 3.50%-3.75% target range after the March 18 policy hold amid balanced inflation and labor market risks. Repo market liquidity remained ample, with no Treasury issuance strains or quarter-end pressures causing spikes, anchoring trader consensus on mid-3.6% levels as reflected in Polymarket's skin-in-the-game probabilities. Resolution hinged on New York Fed daily publications to two decimals; future paths now pivot to April CPI data, nonfarm payrolls, and the April 29-30 FOMC meeting for rate cut signals influencing short-term funding dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions