Market icon
Geopolítica·Israel X Irão

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Israel X Irão

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

$459,671 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$459,671 Vol.

Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

$71,643 Vol.

32%

UAE

$36,668 Vol.

22%

Bahrain

$780 Vol.

9%

Kuwait

$1,273 Vol.

7%

Qatar

$701 Vol.

6%

Any E.U. Country

$5,081 Vol.

6%

Jordan

$926 Vol.

6%

France

$148,533 Vol.

5%

Turkey

$14,987 Vol.

4%

Oman

$340 Vol.

4%

UK

$103,183 Vol.

3%

Germany

$75,558 Vol.

3%

Canada

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have conducted ongoing airstrikes against Iran since February 28, targeting nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, air defenses, and regime infrastructure, with the latest reported strikes on March 29 hitting four key missile production plants as Israel's campaign nears completion per IDF statements. Iran's retaliatory missile barrages, including a March 28 attack on Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base injuring at least 15 U.S. troops, have prompted Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to shift toward supporting or considering direct military involvement amid threats to their energy facilities. Houthi strikes on Israel mark proxy escalation, while UK, France, and Germany signaled early March readiness for defensive actions against Iranian missiles. Traders watch for U.S. ground operations or energy strikes potentially by early April, alongside diplomatic signals amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, as the conflict enters its second month with uncertain expansion by April 30 resolution.

The United States and Israel have conducted ongoing airstrikes against Iran since February 28, targeting nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, air defenses, and regime infrastructure, with the latest reported strikes on March 29 hitting four key missile production plants as Israel's campaign nears completion per IDF statements. Iran's retaliatory missile barrages, including a March 28 attack on Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base injuring at least 15 U.S. troops, have prompted Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to shift toward supporting or considering direct military involvement amid threats to their energy facilities. Houthi strikes on Israel mark proxy escalation, while UK, France, and Germany signaled early March readiness for defensive actions against Iranian missiles. Traders watch for U.S. ground operations or energy strikes potentially by early April, alongside diplomatic signals amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, as the conflict enters its second month with uncertain expansion by April 30 resolution.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have conducted ongoing airstrikes against Iran since February 28, targeting nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, air defenses, and regime infrastructure, with the latest reported strikes on March 29 hitting four key missile production plants as Israel's campaign nears completion per IDF statements. Iran's retaliatory missile barrages, including a March 28 attack on Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base injuring at least 15 U.S. troops, have prompted Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to shift toward supporting or considering direct military involvement amid threats to their energy facilities. Houthi strikes on Israel mark proxy escalation, while UK, France, and Germany signaled early March readiness for defensive actions against Iranian missiles. Traders watch for U.S. ground operations or energy strikes potentially by early April, alongside diplomatic signals amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, as the conflict enters its second month with uncertain expansion by April 30 resolution.

The United States and Israel have conducted ongoing airstrikes against Iran since February 28, targeting nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, air defenses, and regime infrastructure, with the latest reported strikes on March 29 hitting four key missile production plants as Israel's campaign nears completion per IDF statements. Iran's retaliatory missile barrages, including a March 28 attack on Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base injuring at least 15 U.S. troops, have prompted Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to shift toward supporting or considering direct military involvement amid threats to their energy facilities. Houthi strikes on Israel mark proxy escalation, while UK, France, and Germany signaled early March readiness for defensive actions against Iranian missiles. Traders watch for U.S. ground operations or energy strikes potentially by early April, alongside diplomatic signals amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, as the conflict enters its second month with uncertain expansion by April 30 resolution.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Saudi Arabia" at 32%, followed by "UAE" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" has generated $459.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" is "Saudi Arabia" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "UAE" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.