US and Israeli forces continue high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets a month into the conflict that began with their joint surprise attacks on February 28, anchoring trader consensus on their leading roles in military action against Iran. Yesterday's Iranian ballistic missile strike on the US-occupied Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia wounded at least 10 American troops and damaged aircraft, escalating risks of Gulf states like Saudi Arabia retaliating directly or facilitating further US operations. President Trump paused strikes on Iran's energy sector until April 6 amid stalled ceasefire talks—Iran rejected a US peace plan—while reports suggest preparations for potential ground assaults, keeping probabilities fluid for additional countries through April 30 amid de-escalation signals or intensified proxy attacks from Yemen's Houthis.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$84,850 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
25%
UAE
22%
Kuwait
7%
Bahrain
7%
Qatar
7%
Any E.U. Country
6%
UK
6%
France
5%
Jordan
5%
Turkey
5%
Oman
4%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$84,850 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$40,744 Vol.
25%
UAE
$16,715 Vol.
22%
Kuwait
$1,098 Vol.
7%
Bahrain
$445 Vol.
7%
Qatar
$331 Vol.
7%
Any E.U. Country
$2,420 Vol.
6%
UK
$15,934 Vol.
6%
France
$3,759 Vol.
5%
Jordan
$882 Vol.
5%
Turkey
$292 Vol.
5%
Oman
$293 Vol.
4%
Germany
$1,939 Vol.
3%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets a month into the conflict that began with their joint surprise attacks on February 28, anchoring trader consensus on their leading roles in military action against Iran. Yesterday's Iranian ballistic missile strike on the US-occupied Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia wounded at least 10 American troops and damaged aircraft, escalating risks of Gulf states like Saudi Arabia retaliating directly or facilitating further US operations. President Trump paused strikes on Iran's energy sector until April 6 amid stalled ceasefire talks—Iran rejected a US peace plan—while reports suggest preparations for potential ground assaults, keeping probabilities fluid for additional countries through April 30 amid de-escalation signals or intensified proxy attacks from Yemen's Houthis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$84,850Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets a month into the conflict that began with their joint surprise attacks on February 28, anchoring trader consensus on their leading roles in military action against Iran. Yesterday's Iranian ballistic missile strike on the US-occupied Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia wounded at least 10 American troops and damaged aircraft, escalating risks of Gulf states like Saudi Arabia retaliating directly or facilitating further US operations. President Trump paused strikes on Iran's energy sector until April 6 amid stalled ceasefire talks—Iran rejected a US peace plan—while reports suggest preparations for potential ground assaults, keeping probabilities fluid for additional countries through April 30 amid de-escalation signals or intensified proxy attacks from Yemen's Houthis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$84,850Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces continue high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets a month into the conflict that began with their joint surprise attacks on February 28, anchoring trader consensus on their leading roles in military action against Iran. Yesterday's Iranian ballistic missile strike on the US-occupied Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia wounded at least 10 American troops and damaged aircraft, escalating risks of Gulf states like Saudi Arabia retaliating directly or facilitating further US operations. President Trump paused strikes on Iran's energy sector until April 6 amid stalled ceasefire talks—Iran rejected a US peace plan—while reports suggest preparations for potential ground assaults, keeping probabilities fluid for additional countries through April 30 amid de-escalation signals or intensified proxy attacks from Yemen's Houthis.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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