Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian air defense site near Isfahan on April 19 represented the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's unprecedented April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—the first such attack from Iranian soil. This followed Israel's April 1 strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing senior IRGC commanders, which prompted the escalation. The US, UK, France, and Jordan aided Israel's defense with intercepts but avoided offensive operations. Diplomatic de-escalation signals, including US restraint appeals and Iran's claims of minimal damage, reduced further escalation risks by April 30, with no additional strikes reported amid ongoing proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah and Houthis. Traders monitor potential triggers like renewed proxy attacks or nuclear talks breakdowns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$73,591 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
25%
UAE
22%
Qatar
7%
Kuwait
7%
UK
7%
Bahrain
7%
Any E.U. Country
6%
France
6%
Turkey
5%
Jordan
5%
Germany
4%
Oman
4%
Canada
1%
$73,591 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$33,936 Vol.
25%
UAE
$12,751 Vol.
22%
Qatar
$272 Vol.
7%
Kuwait
$563 Vol.
7%
UK
$15,293 Vol.
7%
Bahrain
$356 Vol.
7%
Any E.U. Country
$2,391 Vol.
6%
France
$3,307 Vol.
6%
Turkey
$224 Vol.
5%
Jordan
$838 Vol.
5%
Germany
$1,392 Vol.
4%
Oman
$0 Vol.
4%
Canada
$2,270 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian air defense site near Isfahan on April 19 represented the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's unprecedented April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—the first such attack from Iranian soil. This followed Israel's April 1 strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing senior IRGC commanders, which prompted the escalation. The US, UK, France, and Jordan aided Israel's defense with intercepts but avoided offensive operations. Diplomatic de-escalation signals, including US restraint appeals and Iran's claims of minimal damage, reduced further escalation risks by April 30, with no additional strikes reported amid ongoing proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah and Houthis. Traders monitor potential triggers like renewed proxy attacks or nuclear talks breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$73,591Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian air defense site near Isfahan on April 19 represented the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's unprecedented April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—the first such attack from Iranian soil. This followed Israel's April 1 strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing senior IRGC commanders, which prompted the escalation. The US, UK, France, and Jordan aided Israel's defense with intercepts but avoided offensive operations. Diplomatic de-escalation signals, including US restraint appeals and Iran's claims of minimal damage, reduced further escalation risks by April 30, with no additional strikes reported amid ongoing proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah and Houthis. Traders monitor potential triggers like renewed proxy attacks or nuclear talks breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,591Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's limited airstrike on an Iranian air defense site near Isfahan on April 19 represented the most recent direct military action against Iran, retaliating for Tehran's unprecedented April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—the first such attack from Iranian soil. This followed Israel's April 1 strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing senior IRGC commanders, which prompted the escalation. The US, UK, France, and Jordan aided Israel's defense with intercepts but avoided offensive operations. Diplomatic de-escalation signals, including US restraint appeals and Iran's claims of minimal damage, reduced further escalation risks by April 30, with no additional strikes reported amid ongoing proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah and Houthis. Traders monitor potential triggers like renewed proxy attacks or nuclear talks breakdowns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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