US and Israel initiated the 2026 Iran war on February 28 with Operation Epic Fury airstrikes targeting Iranian military, nuclear sites, and energy infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and drawing missile retaliations against US bases, Israel, and Gulf allies. As of late March, strikes persist—Israel hit Tehran on March 26, heaviest barrages reported earlier—with US deploying 2,000 airborne troops from the 82nd Division and rejecting Iran's ceasefire counterproposal amid threats of ground operations. GCC nations like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait intercept Iranian attacks, UAE launching counter-missiles; UK facilitates US launches from RAF bases. Failed diplomacy and troop buildups signal potential escalation or coalition expansion before April 30 resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$479,079 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
26%
UAE
21%
Kuwait
7%
Bahrain
7%
Turkey
6%
Any E.U. Country
6%
Jordan
6%
Qatar
5%
France
5%
UK
4%
Oman
4%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$479,079 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$80,635 Vol.
26%
UAE
$43,504 Vol.
21%
Kuwait
$1,274 Vol.
7%
Bahrain
$847 Vol.
7%
Turkey
$15,600 Vol.
6%
Any E.U. Country
$5,483 Vol.
6%
Jordan
$1,093 Vol.
6%
Qatar
$732 Vol.
5%
France
$148,533 Vol.
5%
UK
$104,616 Vol.
4%
Oman
$360 Vol.
4%
Germany
$76,403 Vol.
3%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel initiated the 2026 Iran war on February 28 with Operation Epic Fury airstrikes targeting Iranian military, nuclear sites, and energy infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and drawing missile retaliations against US bases, Israel, and Gulf allies. As of late March, strikes persist—Israel hit Tehran on March 26, heaviest barrages reported earlier—with US deploying 2,000 airborne troops from the 82nd Division and rejecting Iran's ceasefire counterproposal amid threats of ground operations. GCC nations like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait intercept Iranian attacks, UAE launching counter-missiles; UK facilitates US launches from RAF bases. Failed diplomacy and troop buildups signal potential escalation or coalition expansion before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$479,079Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel initiated the 2026 Iran war on February 28 with Operation Epic Fury airstrikes targeting Iranian military, nuclear sites, and energy infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and drawing missile retaliations against US bases, Israel, and Gulf allies. As of late March, strikes persist—Israel hit Tehran on March 26, heaviest barrages reported earlier—with US deploying 2,000 airborne troops from the 82nd Division and rejecting Iran's ceasefire counterproposal amid threats of ground operations. GCC nations like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait intercept Iranian attacks, UAE launching counter-missiles; UK facilitates US launches from RAF bases. Failed diplomacy and troop buildups signal potential escalation or coalition expansion before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$479,079Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel initiated the 2026 Iran war on February 28 with Operation Epic Fury airstrikes targeting Iranian military, nuclear sites, and energy infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and drawing missile retaliations against US bases, Israel, and Gulf allies. As of late March, strikes persist—Israel hit Tehran on March 26, heaviest barrages reported earlier—with US deploying 2,000 airborne troops from the 82nd Division and rejecting Iran's ceasefire counterproposal amid threats of ground operations. GCC nations like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait intercept Iranian attacks, UAE launching counter-missiles; UK facilitates US launches from RAF bases. Failed diplomacy and troop buildups signal potential escalation or coalition expansion before April 30 resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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