Market icon
Tecnologia·Gémeos 3

Qual empresa tem o modelo #3 de IA no final de março? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)

Market icon
Tecnologia·Gémeos 3

Qual empresa tem o modelo #3 de IA no final de março? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Google 94.3%

xAI 3.2%

Anthropic 2.4%

Z.ai <1%

Polymarket

$366,755 Vol.

Google 94.3%

xAI 3.2%

Anthropic 2.4%

Z.ai <1%

Polymarket

$366,755 Vol.

Market icon

Google

$36,954 Vol.

94%

Market icon

xAI

$29,520 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Anthropic

$33,619 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Z.ai

$130,083 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mistral

$15,811 Vol.

<1%

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Alibaba

$23,085 Vol.

<1%

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OpenAI

$30,507 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$36,206 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$19,343 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Meituan

$11,628 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus gives Google a 94.3% implied probability of claiming the #3 large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, as Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds third place at 1489 Elo—trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants—thanks to two weeks of leaderboard stability and superior substance-focused performance that resists style biases like verbosity. This positioning stems from February's Gemini updates bolstering competitive standing in blind user battles, outpacing xAI's Grok and others without major interlopers. Realistic challenges include a late xAI fine-tune surging via fresh votes or an unexpected OpenAI/Anthropic secondary model leap before snapshot, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.

Trader consensus gives Google a 94.3% implied probability of claiming the #3 large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, as Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds third place at 1489 Elo—trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants—thanks to two weeks of leaderboard stability and superior substance-focused performance that resists style biases like verbosity. This positioning stems from February's Gemini updates bolstering competitive standing in blind user battles, outpacing xAI's Grok and others without major interlopers. Realistic challenges include a late xAI fine-tune surging via fresh votes or an unexpected OpenAI/Anthropic secondary model leap before snapshot, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus gives Google a 94.3% implied probability of claiming the #3 large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, as Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds third place at 1489 Elo—trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants—thanks to two weeks of leaderboard stability and superior substance-focused performance that resists style biases like verbosity. This positioning stems from February's Gemini updates bolstering competitive standing in blind user battles, outpacing xAI's Grok and others without major interlopers. Realistic challenges include a late xAI fine-tune surging via fresh votes or an unexpected OpenAI/Anthropic secondary model leap before snapshot, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.

Trader consensus gives Google a 94.3% implied probability of claiming the #3 large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, as Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds third place at 1489 Elo—trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants—thanks to two weeks of leaderboard stability and superior substance-focused performance that resists style biases like verbosity. This positioning stems from February's Gemini updates bolstering competitive standing in blind user battles, outpacing xAI's Grok and others without major interlopers. Realistic challenges include a late xAI fine-tune surging via fresh votes or an unexpected OpenAI/Anthropic secondary model leap before snapshot, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual empresa tem o modelo #3 de IA no final de março? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Google" at 94%, followed by "xAI" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual empresa tem o modelo #3 de IA no final de março? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)" has generated $366.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual empresa tem o modelo #3 de IA no final de março? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual empresa tem o modelo #3 de IA no final de março? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)" is "Google" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "xAI" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual empresa tem o modelo #3 de IA no final de março? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.