Market icon
Eleições·MIDTERMS

Vencedor da eleição para o Senado do Oregon

Market icon
Eleições·MIDTERMS

Vencedor da eleição para o Senado do Oregon

NOVO
Polymarket
NOVO
Market icon

Democrata

$1,212 Vol.

92%

Market icon

Republicano

$1,035 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term anchors trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic win in Oregon's safely blue Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Democratic dominance—evident in Merkley's 57% victory in 2020 and Kamala Harris's 14-point presidential margin there. With primaries on May 19, 2026, the Republican field remains fragmented, featuring recent entrants like state Sen. David Brock Smith alongside figures such as Jo Rae Perkins, lacking a clear frontrunner or polling traction to challenge Merkley's incumbency advantage and fundraising edge. While odds imply low upset risk aligned with historical safe-seat patterns, a consolidated GOP nominee, national Republican wave, or late scandal could shift dynamics before the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,247
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley's bid for a fourth term anchors trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic win in Oregon's safely blue Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Democratic dominance—evident in Merkley's 57% victory in 2020 and Kamala Harris's 14-point presidential margin there. With primaries on May 19, 2026, the Republican field remains fragmented, featuring recent entrants like state Sen. David Brock Smith alongside figures such as Jo Rae Perkins, lacking a clear frontrunner or polling traction to challenge Merkley's incumbency advantage and fundraising edge. While odds imply low upset risk aligned with historical safe-seat patterns, a consolidated GOP nominee, national Republican wave, or late scandal could shift dynamics before the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,247
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para o Senado do Oregon" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democrata" at 92%, followed by "Republicano" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da eleição para o Senado do Oregon" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Oct 13, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para o Senado do Oregon," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para o Senado do Oregon" is "Democrata" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republicano" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para o Senado do Oregon" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.