Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76% implied probability against OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI)—systems outperforming humans across most economically valuable work—before 2027, anchored by the absence of any official claim despite accelerating progress. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 release on March 5, 2026, bolstered coding and reasoning capabilities toward "AI research intern" levels by late 2026 per prior roadmaps, yet falls short of verified AGI thresholds requiring independent panel confirmation under its Microsoft pact. President Greg Brockman's recent "70-80% there" remark and a massive $122 billion funding round fueled brief optimism, bumping Yes odds temporarily after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's AGI hype, but skeptics cite benchmark gaps and historical timeline slips. Watch for Q2 model demos or DeepMind/Anthropic benchmarks as potential catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoA OpenAI anuncia que alcançou a agi antes de 2027?
A OpenAI anuncia que alcançou a agi antes de 2027?
Sim
$47,282 Vol.
$47,282 Vol.
Sim
$47,282 Vol.
$47,282 Vol.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76% implied probability against OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI)—systems outperforming humans across most economically valuable work—before 2027, anchored by the absence of any official claim despite accelerating progress. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 release on March 5, 2026, bolstered coding and reasoning capabilities toward "AI research intern" levels by late 2026 per prior roadmaps, yet falls short of verified AGI thresholds requiring independent panel confirmation under its Microsoft pact. President Greg Brockman's recent "70-80% there" remark and a massive $122 billion funding round fueled brief optimism, bumping Yes odds temporarily after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's AGI hype, but skeptics cite benchmark gaps and historical timeline slips. Watch for Q2 model demos or DeepMind/Anthropic benchmarks as potential catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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