Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31 at virtually 100% implied probability, anchored by preliminary FAA daily air traffic reports and FlightAware tallies confirming totals in that range as the date concluded. Persistent TSA staffing shortages from the extended government shutdown—now over 45 days—compounded localized disruptions, including FAA-mandated arrival reductions at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) due to runway work affecting up to 25% of flights, ground delays at LaGuardia (LGA), and weather risks at Chicago O'Hare (ORD) and Detroit. High spring break volume amplified pressures, aligning with historical norms for elevated delay days. Final Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) validation is pending but unlikely to shift the count materially; only an audit-revealed data error could realistically challenge this outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado5,500-6,000 100.0%
<5,000 <1%
5,000-5,500 <1%
6,000-6,500 <1%
$7,266 Vol.
$7,266 Vol.
<5,000
No
5,000-5,500
No
5,500-6,000
Yes
6,000-6,500
No
6,500-7,000
No
7,000-7,500
No
7,500-8,000
No
>8,000
No
5,500-6,000 100.0%
<5,000 <1%
5,000-5,500 <1%
6,000-6,500 <1%
$7,266 Vol.
$7,266 Vol.
<5,000
No
5,000-5,500
No
5,500-6,000
Yes
6,000-6,500
No
6,500-7,000
No
7,000-7,500
No
7,500-8,000
No
>8,000
No
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 30, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 5,500-6,000 US flight delays on March 31 at virtually 100% implied probability, anchored by preliminary FAA daily air traffic reports and FlightAware tallies confirming totals in that range as the date concluded. Persistent TSA staffing shortages from the extended government shutdown—now over 45 days—compounded localized disruptions, including FAA-mandated arrival reductions at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) due to runway work affecting up to 25% of flights, ground delays at LaGuardia (LGA), and weather risks at Chicago O'Hare (ORD) and Detroit. High spring break volume amplified pressures, aligning with historical norms for elevated delay days. Final Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) validation is pending but unlikely to shift the count materially; only an audit-revealed data error could realistically challenge this outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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