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Política·Prémios

Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026

Market icon
Política·Prémios

Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026

Yulia Navalnaya 11%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.6%

Donald Trump 8%

Papa Leão XIV 4.5%

Polymarket

$11,809,636 Vol.

Yulia Navalnaya 11%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.6%

Donald Trump 8%

Papa Leão XIV 4.5%

Polymarket

$11,809,636 Vol.

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Yulia Navalnaya

$79,874 Vol.

11%

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$401,956 Vol.

10%

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Donald Trump

$2,311,448 Vol.

8%

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Papa Leão XIV

$494,800 Vol.

4%

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Tribunal Internacional de Justiça

$506,140 Vol.

4%

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Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$352,776 Vol.

4%

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UNRWA

$1,640,328 Vol.

3%

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Greta Thunberg

$932,564 Vol.

3%

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Narendra Modi

$293,389 Vol.

3%

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Charlie Kirk

$502,860 Vol.

2%

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Elon Musk

$516,975 Vol.

2%

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António Guterres

$142,993 Vol.

2%

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Xi Jinping

$761,240 Vol.

2%

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Mohammed bin Salman

$563,512 Vol.

2%

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Julian Assange

$336,318 Vol.

2%

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Khaled Mashal

$204,908 Vol.

1%

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Ahmed al-Sharaa

$557,593 Vol.

1%

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Vladimir Putin

$493,503 Vol.

1%

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Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$401,104 Vol.

1%

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Benjamin Netanyahu

$316,456 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader sentiment on the Nobel Peace Prize remains highly fragmented, with Yulia Navalnaya holding a slim lead at 10.5% implied probability over Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.6%, reflecting intense competition among global figures amid ongoing conflicts. Zelenskyy's odds surged in the past 48 hours following his formal nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression as a democratic bulwark—a narrative boosting his frontrunner status despite the war's prolongation. Navalnaya maintains momentum through her steadfast opposition legacy post-Alexei Navalny, while Donald Trump's 7.5% trails amid symbolic Venezuela peace gestures but tempered by recent U.S. foreign policy shifts. Pope Leo XIV at 4.5% gains from high-profile diplomacy, like meetings with 2025 winner María Corina Machado. With no dominant campaign trajectory and secret committee deliberations until the October 2026 announcement, traders eye late-breaking peace breakthroughs as key swing factors in this unpredictable awards landscape.

Trader sentiment on the Nobel Peace Prize remains highly fragmented, with Yulia Navalnaya holding a slim lead at 10.5% implied probability over Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.6%, reflecting intense competition among global figures amid ongoing conflicts. Zelenskyy's odds surged in the past 48 hours following his formal nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression as a democratic bulwark—a narrative boosting his frontrunner status despite the war's prolongation. Navalnaya maintains momentum through her steadfast opposition legacy post-Alexei Navalny, while Donald Trump's 7.5% trails amid symbolic Venezuela peace gestures but tempered by recent U.S. foreign policy shifts. Pope Leo XIV at 4.5% gains from high-profile diplomacy, like meetings with 2025 winner María Corina Machado. With no dominant campaign trajectory and secret committee deliberations until the October 2026 announcement, traders eye late-breaking peace breakthroughs as key swing factors in this unpredictable awards landscape.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader sentiment on the Nobel Peace Prize remains highly fragmented, with Yulia Navalnaya holding a slim lead at 10.5% implied probability over Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.6%, reflecting intense competition among global figures amid ongoing conflicts. Zelenskyy's odds surged in the past 48 hours following his formal nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression as a democratic bulwark—a narrative boosting his frontrunner status despite the war's prolongation. Navalnaya maintains momentum through her steadfast opposition legacy post-Alexei Navalny, while Donald Trump's 7.5% trails amid symbolic Venezuela peace gestures but tempered by recent U.S. foreign policy shifts. Pope Leo XIV at 4.5% gains from high-profile diplomacy, like meetings with 2025 winner María Corina Machado. With no dominant campaign trajectory and secret committee deliberations until the October 2026 announcement, traders eye late-breaking peace breakthroughs as key swing factors in this unpredictable awards landscape.

Trader sentiment on the Nobel Peace Prize remains highly fragmented, with Yulia Navalnaya holding a slim lead at 10.5% implied probability over Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.6%, reflecting intense competition among global figures amid ongoing conflicts. Zelenskyy's odds surged in the past 48 hours following his formal nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, framing Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression as a democratic bulwark—a narrative boosting his frontrunner status despite the war's prolongation. Navalnaya maintains momentum through her steadfast opposition legacy post-Alexei Navalny, while Donald Trump's 7.5% trails amid symbolic Venezuela peace gestures but tempered by recent U.S. foreign policy shifts. Pope Leo XIV at 4.5% gains from high-profile diplomacy, like meetings with 2025 winner María Corina Machado. With no dominant campaign trajectory and secret committee deliberations until the October 2026 announcement, traders eye late-breaking peace breakthroughs as key swing factors in this unpredictable awards landscape.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yulia Navalnaya" at 11%, followed by "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" has generated $11.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" is "Yulia Navalnaya" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor do Prémio Nobel da Paz 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.