Traders assign a 96.9% probability to “No” for a magnitude-8.0 or greater earthquake anywhere on Earth by June 30, 2026, because the roughly 12-day window is far shorter than the recurrence intervals for such events and because short-term earthquake prediction remains impossible. USGS data confirm that global M8+ quakes occur only a handful of times per decade on average and follow no reliable precursory signals that monitoring networks can detect days in advance. Recent activity, including the M7.8 Mindanao event of June 8, has not produced elevated aftershock probabilities or official alerts indicating follow-on rupture on major subduction zones. While an unforeseen M8+ could still occur, the combination of limited time, absence of triggering indicators, and historical rarity keeps market-implied odds overwhelmingly on “No.”