Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, per USGS Earthquake Hazards Program data, as no such events have occurred since market start in late 2025 despite several M7+ quakes like the April 20 M7.4 off Japan's Honshu at the Japan Trench subduction zone. That event prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory raising short-term M8+ odds to 1% from 0.1% baseline due to induced stress changes, but the heightened-risk window passed uneventfully, with global seismic patterns returning to normal sans foreshock swarms or fault slip anomalies. Historical M8+ frequency averages one per year globally, yet seismology precludes short-term prediction; USGS real-time catalogs remain the key watch for any shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMegaquake até 30 de junho?
Megaquake até 30 de junho?
Sim
$64,325 Vol.
$64,325 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$64,325 Vol.
$64,325 Vol.
30 jun 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, per USGS Earthquake Hazards Program data, as no such events have occurred since market start in late 2025 despite several M7+ quakes like the April 20 M7.4 off Japan's Honshu at the Japan Trench subduction zone. That event prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory raising short-term M8+ odds to 1% from 0.1% baseline due to induced stress changes, but the heightened-risk window passed uneventfully, with global seismic patterns returning to normal sans foreshock swarms or fault slip anomalies. Historical M8+ frequency averages one per year globally, yet seismology precludes short-term prediction; USGS real-time catalogs remain the key watch for any shifts ahead of resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$64,325Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, per USGS Earthquake Hazards Program data, as no such events have occurred since market start in late 2025 despite several M7+ quakes like the April 20 M7.4 off Japan's Honshu at the Japan Trench subduction zone. That event prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory raising short-term M8+ odds to 1% from 0.1% baseline due to induced stress changes, but the heightened-risk window passed uneventfully, with global seismic patterns returning to normal sans foreshock swarms or fault slip anomalies. Historical M8+ frequency averages one per year globally, yet seismology precludes short-term prediction; USGS real-time catalogs remain the key watch for any shifts ahead of resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$64,325Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 84.5% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, per USGS Earthquake Hazards Program data, as no such events have occurred since market start in late 2025 despite several M7+ quakes like the April 20 M7.4 off Japan's Honshu at the Japan Trench subduction zone. That event prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory raising short-term M8+ odds to 1% from 0.1% baseline due to induced stress changes, but the heightened-risk window passed uneventfully, with global seismic patterns returning to normal sans foreshock swarms or fault slip anomalies. Historical M8+ frequency averages one per year globally, yet seismology precludes short-term prediction; USGS real-time catalogs remain the key watch for any shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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