Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability for no megaquake—an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the absence of any such events in 2026 despite four M7.0+ quakes recorded by USGS through early April, including the largest M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. Global seismic networks show no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent rupture along major subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Historically, USGS data indicate roughly one M8+ event annually worldwide, but short-term forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic tectonic stress release. Ongoing real-time monitoring by USGS will provide updates, with the quiet start to the year bolstering No positioning amid inherent uncertainties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMegaquake até 30 de junho?
Megaquake até 30 de junho?
Sim
$37,348 Vol.
$37,348 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$37,348 Vol.
$37,348 Vol.
30 jun 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability for no megaquake—an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the absence of any such events in 2026 despite four M7.0+ quakes recorded by USGS through early April, including the largest M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. Global seismic networks show no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent rupture along major subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Historically, USGS data indicate roughly one M8+ event annually worldwide, but short-term forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic tectonic stress release. Ongoing real-time monitoring by USGS will provide updates, with the quiet start to the year bolstering No positioning amid inherent uncertainties.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$37,348Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability for no megaquake—an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the absence of any such events in 2026 despite four M7.0+ quakes recorded by USGS through early April, including the largest M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. Global seismic networks show no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent rupture along major subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Historically, USGS data indicate roughly one M8+ event annually worldwide, but short-term forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic tectonic stress release. Ongoing real-time monitoring by USGS will provide updates, with the quiet start to the year bolstering No positioning amid inherent uncertainties.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$37,348Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79.5% implied probability for no megaquake—an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, driven by the absence of any such events in 2026 despite four M7.0+ quakes recorded by USGS through early April, including the largest M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. Global seismic networks show no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent rupture along major subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Historically, USGS data indicate roughly one M8+ event annually worldwide, but short-term forecasting remains impossible due to chaotic tectonic stress release. Ongoing real-time monitoring by USGS will provide updates, with the quiet start to the year bolstering No positioning amid inherent uncertainties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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