Escalating Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, refineries, and US bases in Saudi Arabia and UAE—wounding troops and causing $800 million in damage—have propelled Polymarket trader consensus toward Gulf State retaliation, pricing 26% implied probability of action by April 30 (up from prior levels) versus 74% no. Brent crude volatility reflects these risks, surging 45% over the past month to $112.57/bbl as of March 27 amid threats to 20 million b/d Strait of Hormuz flows (20% of global seaborne oil). Saudi and UAE signal offensive readiness while urging US permanent curbs on Iranian missiles; key catalysts include Trump's 10-day pause on power plant strikes and potential ceasefire talks next week.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoGulf State military action against Iran by...?
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 15
23%
April 30
27%
$2,348 Vol.
April 15
$2,225 Vol.
23%
April 30
$123 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Escalating Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, refineries, and US bases in Saudi Arabia and UAE—wounding troops and causing $800 million in damage—have propelled Polymarket trader consensus toward Gulf State retaliation, pricing 26% implied probability of action by April 30 (up from prior levels) versus 74% no. Brent crude volatility reflects these risks, surging 45% over the past month to $112.57/bbl as of March 27 amid threats to 20 million b/d Strait of Hormuz flows (20% of global seaborne oil). Saudi and UAE signal offensive readiness while urging US permanent curbs on Iranian missiles; key catalysts include Trump's 10-day pause on power plant strikes and potential ceasefire talks next week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$2,348Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Escalating Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, refineries, and US bases in Saudi Arabia and UAE—wounding troops and causing $800 million in damage—have propelled Polymarket trader consensus toward Gulf State retaliation, pricing 26% implied probability of action by April 30 (up from prior levels) versus 74% no. Brent crude volatility reflects these risks, surging 45% over the past month to $112.57/bbl as of March 27 amid threats to 20 million b/d Strait of Hormuz flows (20% of global seaborne oil). Saudi and UAE signal offensive readiness while urging US permanent curbs on Iranian missiles; key catalysts include Trump's 10-day pause on power plant strikes and potential ceasefire talks next week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,348Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, refineries, and US bases in Saudi Arabia and UAE—wounding troops and causing $800 million in damage—have propelled Polymarket trader consensus toward Gulf State retaliation, pricing 26% implied probability of action by April 30 (up from prior levels) versus 74% no. Brent crude volatility reflects these risks, surging 45% over the past month to $112.57/bbl as of March 27 amid threats to 20 million b/d Strait of Hormuz flows (20% of global seaborne oil). Saudi and UAE signal offensive readiness while urging US permanent curbs on Iranian missiles; key catalysts include Trump's 10-day pause on power plant strikes and potential ceasefire talks next week.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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