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CA-14 Primary Winners

icon for CA-14 Primary Winners

CA-14 Primary Winners

$5,098 Vol.

2 jun 2026
Polymarket

$5,098 Vol.

Polymarket

Aisha Wahab

$612 Vol.

99%

Melissa Hernandez

$528 Vol.

99%

Suzanne Chenault

$140 Vol.

3%

Carin Elam

$192 Vol.

2%

Matt Ortega

$837 Vol.

2%

Wendy Huang

$1,070 Vol.

2%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$200 Vol.

1%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$1,520 Vol.

1%

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 14h congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California's 14th Congressional District special election primary on June 16, 2026, fills a vacancy in a safely Democratic East Bay seat covering areas such as Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. A top-two format advances the leading vote-getters to an August 18 general, with multiple Democrats on the ballot alongside Republican contenders. State Senator Aisha Wahab holds the California Democratic Party endorsement and leads early positioning among a field that includes Melissa Hernandez and others. District partisan lean and historical turnout patterns favor Democratic advancement, while Republican candidates face structural barriers. Mail ballots and remaining campaign events through election day remain key variables for final margins.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 14h congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,098
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 21, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 14h congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 14h congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California's 14th Congressional District special election primary on June 16, 2026, fills a vacancy in a safely Democratic East Bay seat covering areas such as Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. A top-two format advances the leading vote-getters to an August 18 general, with multiple Democrats on the ballot alongside Republican contenders. State Senator Aisha Wahab holds the California Democratic Party endorsement and leads early positioning among a field that includes Melissa Hernandez and others. District partisan lean and historical turnout patterns favor Democratic advancement, while Republican candidates face structural barriers. Mail ballots and remaining campaign events through election day remain key variables for final margins.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 14h congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$5,098
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 21, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 14h congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-14 Primary Winners" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aisha Wahab" at 99%, followed by "Melissa Hernandez" at 99%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CA-14 Primary Winners" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CA-14 Primary Winners," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-14 Primary Winners" is "Aisha Wahab" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Melissa Hernandez" at 99%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-14 Primary Winners" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.