Market icon
Economia·Recompensas 10, 4.5, 50

Argentina Monthly Inflation - March

Market icon
Economia·Recompensas 10, 4.5, 50

Argentina Monthly Inflation - March

Apr 14

Apr 14

3.1–3.3% 72%

2.8–3.0% 18%

3.4–3.6% 6.2%

2.5–2.7% 4%

Polymarket

$14,066 Vol.

3.1–3.3% 72%

2.8–3.0% 18%

3.4–3.6% 6.2%

2.5–2.7% 4%

Polymarket

$14,066 Vol.

≤2.1%

$1,197 Vol.

1%

2.2–2.4%

$821 Vol.

<1%

2.5–2.7%

$1,152 Vol.

4%

2.8–3.0%

$1,430 Vol.

18%

3.1–3.3%

$4,272 Vol.

72%

3.4–3.6%

$1,732 Vol.

6%

3.7%+

$3,462 Vol.

2%

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 monthly CPI inflation rate of 3.1–3.3% at 71% implied probability, reflecting February's actual 2.9% print from INDEC—stable from January but above the 2.7% economist consensus—which has entrenched expectations around 3%. Upward pressures stem from fuel price pass-through amid the Iran war-driven oil shock (adding ~0.3 percentage points per analyst estimates), alongside rising meat costs and regulated tariffs, offsetting Milei's fiscal austerity and reserve accumulation. Private consultancies now project 2.8–3.2%, aligning with the market's positioning over lower bins. INDEC's official March release, due early April, remains the key catalyst amid sticky inflation dynamics.

Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 monthly CPI inflation rate of 3.1–3.3% at 71% implied probability, reflecting February's actual 2.9% print from INDEC—stable from January but above the 2.7% economist consensus—which has entrenched expectations around 3%. Upward pressures stem from fuel price pass-through amid the Iran war-driven oil shock (adding ~0.3 percentage points per analyst estimates), alongside rising meat costs and regulated tariffs, offsetting Milei's fiscal austerity and reserve accumulation. Private consultancies now project 2.8–3.2%, aligning with the market's positioning over lower bins. INDEC's official March release, due early April, remains the key catalyst amid sticky inflation dynamics.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 monthly CPI inflation rate of 3.1–3.3% at 71% implied probability, reflecting February's actual 2.9% print from INDEC—stable from January but above the 2.7% economist consensus—which has entrenched expectations around 3%. Upward pressures stem from fuel price pass-through amid the Iran war-driven oil shock (adding ~0.3 percentage points per analyst estimates), alongside rising meat costs and regulated tariffs, offsetting Milei's fiscal austerity and reserve accumulation. Private consultancies now project 2.8–3.2%, aligning with the market's positioning over lower bins. INDEC's official March release, due early April, remains the key catalyst amid sticky inflation dynamics.

Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 monthly CPI inflation rate of 3.1–3.3% at 71% implied probability, reflecting February's actual 2.9% print from INDEC—stable from January but above the 2.7% economist consensus—which has entrenched expectations around 3%. Upward pressures stem from fuel price pass-through amid the Iran war-driven oil shock (adding ~0.3 percentage points per analyst estimates), alongside rising meat costs and regulated tariffs, offsetting Milei's fiscal austerity and reserve accumulation. Private consultancies now project 2.8–3.2%, aligning with the market's positioning over lower bins. INDEC's official March release, due early April, remains the key catalyst amid sticky inflation dynamics.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3.1–3.3%" at 72%, followed by "2.8–3.0%" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" has generated $14.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" is "3.1–3.3%" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2.8–3.0%" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.