Major rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt since Moody’s cut the rating to Aa1 from Aaa in May 2025, leaving S&P and Fitch at AA+. This positioning underpins the market-implied 82% probability against another downgrade before 2027, as the dollar’s reserve-currency status and robust foreign demand for Treasuries continue to offset fiscal pressures. Recent developments, including Fitch’s April 2026 report highlighting widening deficits near 7.9% of GDP and debt exceeding 120% of GDP next year, have prompted warnings but no rating actions. Absent fresh debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp deterioration in Treasury yields, traders view near-term triggers as limited, with key catalysts including FY2027 budget talks and any late-2026 funding deadline.