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Outro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?

Market icon

Outro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?

May 31

May 31

$19,183 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$19,183 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de março

$6,635 Vol.

12%

30 de abril

$9,209 Vol.

65%

31 de maio

$3,339 Vol.

84%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The M7.5 earthquake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24 at intermediate depth via normal faulting marks the most recent major event, resetting expectations for the next occurrence in this market tracking a follow-up M7.0 or greater globally. USGS data confirms no additional M7+ quakes since, with only one in the past 30 days amid a typical annual rate of 15-20 such events worldwide, following Poisson-like clustering patterns. Trader consensus hinges on historical frequency—roughly one every 18-24 days—against the market's end date, though precise prediction remains impossible due to seismic randomness. Monitor USGS real-time feeds for confirmations, as aftershocks rarely exceed the mainshock magnitude.

The M7.5 earthquake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24 at intermediate depth via normal faulting marks the most recent major event, resetting expectations for the next occurrence in this market tracking a follow-up M7.0 or greater globally. USGS data confirms no additional M7+ quakes since, with only one in the past 30 days amid a typical annual rate of 15-20 such events worldwide, following Poisson-like clustering patterns. Trader consensus hinges on historical frequency—roughly one every 18-24 days—against the market's end date, though precise prediction remains impossible due to seismic randomness. Monitor USGS real-time feeds for confirmations, as aftershocks rarely exceed the mainshock magnitude.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The M7.5 earthquake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24 at intermediate depth via normal faulting marks the most recent major event, resetting expectations for the next occurrence in this market tracking a follow-up M7.0 or greater globally. USGS data confirms no additional M7+ quakes since, with only one in the past 30 days amid a typical annual rate of 15-20 such events worldwide, following Poisson-like clustering patterns. Trader consensus hinges on historical frequency—roughly one every 18-24 days—against the market's end date, though precise prediction remains impossible due to seismic randomness. Monitor USGS real-time feeds for confirmations, as aftershocks rarely exceed the mainshock magnitude.

The M7.5 earthquake striking 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, on March 24 at intermediate depth via normal faulting marks the most recent major event, resetting expectations for the next occurrence in this market tracking a follow-up M7.0 or greater globally. USGS data confirms no additional M7+ quakes since, with only one in the past 30 days amid a typical annual rate of 15-20 such events worldwide, following Poisson-like clustering patterns. Trader consensus hinges on historical frequency—roughly one every 18-24 days—against the market's end date, though precise prediction remains impossible due to seismic randomness. Monitor USGS real-time feeds for confirmations, as aftershocks rarely exceed the mainshock magnitude.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Outro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de maio" at 84%, followed by "30 de abril" at 65%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Outro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?" has generated $19.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Outro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Outro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?" is "31 de maio" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30 de abril" at 65%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Outro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.