Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, destroying most centrifuges and rendering active uranium enrichment inoperable. Iran currently shows no operating cascades, with surviving 60% enriched material largely buried or inaccessible under rubble and tunnels, while the IAEA has lacked verification access since mid-2025. Satellite imagery through early October 2026 reveals reconstruction and vehicle activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, yet assessments indicate no near-term capacity for weapons-grade production. Trader consensus reflects these constraints on rapid breakout. Remaining risks include accelerated clandestine recovery of stockpiles or a policy shift toward NPT withdrawal if diplomacy stalls, though such paths face significant technical and detection hurdles before 2027.