US-Iran negotiations have advanced significantly since February 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes severely damaged Iran's nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites and stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, as confirmed by IAEA reports showing no radiation leaks and limited access for inspectors. President Trump stated on April 17 that Iran agreed to indefinitely suspend its nuclear program amid a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though sticking points remain on uranium enrichment levels. US intelligence assessments indicate no decision to weaponize, with breakout timelines extended years due to the strikes. Traders' 89.5% consensus on "No" reflects this setback and diplomatic momentum, pricing in slim odds of a test before 2027 barring talks' collapse or covert reconstitution.