US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 confirm Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months away, unchanged despite two months of US and Israeli strikes targeting weaponization facilities during recent conflict. IAEA reports from February and March highlight Iran's continued production of near-weapons-grade uranium but no evidence of diversion to military use or resumption of key weaponization activities, with Supreme Leader Khamenei yet to reauthorize such efforts. Ongoing US-Iran ceasefire talks, including proposals for uranium stockpile curbs and enrichment suspension, signal diplomatic de-escalation. Traders price a 90.5% "No" probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on structural barriers like sanctions, degraded infrastructure, and absent political authorization barring late breakthroughs such as rapid weaponization or failed negotiations.