US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear sites damaged enrichment infrastructure and related facilities, extending Iran's estimated breakout timeline according to subsequent US intelligence assessments. Recent IAEA reports confirm restricted access to affected sites and unverifiable suspension of enrichment activities, while May 2026 assessments indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from weapon production even if a decision is made. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, including IAEA meetings and reported discussions on diluting stockpiles, further supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 92.3% implied probability for "No."
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$623,715 Wol.
$623,715 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$623,715 Wol.
$623,715 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear sites damaged enrichment infrastructure and related facilities, extending Iran's estimated breakout timeline according to subsequent US intelligence assessments. Recent IAEA reports confirm restricted access to affected sites and unverifiable suspension of enrichment activities, while May 2026 assessments indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from weapon production even if a decision is made. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, including IAEA meetings and reported discussions on diluting stockpiles, further supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 92.3% implied probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$623,715Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear sites damaged enrichment infrastructure and related facilities, extending Iran's estimated breakout timeline according to subsequent US intelligence assessments. Recent IAEA reports confirm restricted access to affected sites and unverifiable suspension of enrichment activities, while May 2026 assessments indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from weapon production even if a decision is made. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, including IAEA meetings and reported discussions on diluting stockpiles, further supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 92.3% implied probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$623,715Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear sites damaged enrichment infrastructure and related facilities, extending Iran's estimated breakout timeline according to subsequent US intelligence assessments. Recent IAEA reports confirm restricted access to affected sites and unverifiable suspension of enrichment activities, while May 2026 assessments indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from weapon production even if a decision is made. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, including IAEA meetings and reported discussions on diluting stockpiles, further supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 92.3% implied probability for "No."
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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