US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program remains broadly unchanged and far from producing a testable nuclear device, despite recent airstrikes causing limited additional damage to facilities like Natanz and Fordow. IAEA reports from February confirm no radiation spikes post-strikes and ongoing access to unaffected sites, though verification challenges persist amid the 2026 Iran war. Supreme Leader Khamenei's lack of reauthorization for weaponization activities, combined with repeated US-Israeli operations since Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, has degraded key enrichment and weaponization capabilities, sustaining trader consensus at 91% for no test before 2027. Escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds, but structural barriers and international sanctions dominate current positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$189,940 Wol.
$189,940 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$189,940 Wol.
$189,940 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program remains broadly unchanged and far from producing a testable nuclear device, despite recent airstrikes causing limited additional damage to facilities like Natanz and Fordow. IAEA reports from February confirm no radiation spikes post-strikes and ongoing access to unaffected sites, though verification challenges persist amid the 2026 Iran war. Supreme Leader Khamenei's lack of reauthorization for weaponization activities, combined with repeated US-Israeli operations since Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, has degraded key enrichment and weaponization capabilities, sustaining trader consensus at 91% for no test before 2027. Escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds, but structural barriers and international sanctions dominate current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$189,940Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program remains broadly unchanged and far from producing a testable nuclear device, despite recent airstrikes causing limited additional damage to facilities like Natanz and Fordow. IAEA reports from February confirm no radiation spikes post-strikes and ongoing access to unaffected sites, though verification challenges persist amid the 2026 Iran war. Supreme Leader Khamenei's lack of reauthorization for weaponization activities, combined with repeated US-Israeli operations since Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, has degraded key enrichment and weaponization capabilities, sustaining trader consensus at 91% for no test before 2027. Escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds, but structural barriers and international sanctions dominate current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$189,940Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program remains broadly unchanged and far from producing a testable nuclear device, despite recent airstrikes causing limited additional damage to facilities like Natanz and Fordow. IAEA reports from February confirm no radiation spikes post-strikes and ongoing access to unaffected sites, though verification challenges persist amid the 2026 Iran war. Supreme Leader Khamenei's lack of reauthorization for weaponization activities, combined with repeated US-Israeli operations since Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, has degraded key enrichment and weaponization capabilities, sustaining trader consensus at 91% for no test before 2027. Escalation signals or diplomatic breakthroughs could shift odds, but structural barriers and international sanctions dominate current positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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