Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including operations in June 2025 and February 2026 targeting enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan plus weaponization-related infrastructure, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear device to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reports confirm ongoing concerns over Iran's large stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium and restricted inspector access but note no evidence of active weaponization efforts or preparations for a test. These military actions, combined with reimposed sanctions and diplomatic isolation, have increased technical and political barriers, aligning with trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$196,569 Wol.
$196,569 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$196,569 Wol.
$196,569 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including operations in June 2025 and February 2026 targeting enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan plus weaponization-related infrastructure, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear device to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reports confirm ongoing concerns over Iran's large stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium and restricted inspector access but note no evidence of active weaponization efforts or preparations for a test. These military actions, combined with reimposed sanctions and diplomatic isolation, have increased technical and political barriers, aligning with trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$196,569Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including operations in June 2025 and February 2026 targeting enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan plus weaponization-related infrastructure, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear device to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reports confirm ongoing concerns over Iran's large stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium and restricted inspector access but note no evidence of active weaponization efforts or preparations for a test. These military actions, combined with reimposed sanctions and diplomatic isolation, have increased technical and political barriers, aligning with trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$196,569Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including operations in June 2025 and February 2026 targeting enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan plus weaponization-related infrastructure, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear device to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reports confirm ongoing concerns over Iran's large stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium and restricted inspector access but note no evidence of active weaponization efforts or preparations for a test. These military actions, combined with reimposed sanctions and diplomatic isolation, have increased technical and political barriers, aligning with trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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