The stalled implementation of the US-backed Board of Peace framework and associated International Stabilization Force remains the central driver of low trader odds for meaningful foreign intervention in Gaza. A nominal ceasefire has held since October 2025, yet Israeli operations have continued, with over 1,400 Palestinian deaths reported in the subsequent year amid disputes over Hamas disarmament, phased withdrawals, and reconstruction sequencing. Several nations have pledged personnel for a stabilization force, and Israel’s cabinet approved a limited initial deployment in July 2026, but full mobilization has not occurred due to security, verification, and political constraints. Israel’s October 27 elections add near-term uncertainty, while recent NGO assessments highlight persistent restrictions on aid and rebuilding. These barriers sustain trader consensus against rapid deployment by mid-2026 deadlines.