Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has generated repeated warnings from Western intelligence of possible limited Russian provocations or hybrid actions against NATO’s eastern flank, particularly the Baltic states or Poland, to test alliance cohesion under Article 5. Latvian officials flagged military provocation preparations in June 2026, while U.S. assessments in August pointed to risks of drone or missile strikes, sabotage, or small incursions between autumn 2026 and 2029. Recent Russian drone strikes near the Polish border on September 13, 2026, prompted Ukrainian statements framing Moscow as “knocking on NATO’s door.” NATO has expanded eastern deployments, raised defense spending targets, and conducted exercises to enable rapid transition to conflict, even as analysts note Russia remains heavily committed in Ukraine and lacks capacity for a major conventional attack on the alliance.

May 4 2026

NATO steps up Arctic readiness as Russia expands submarine fleet

Reports of increased Russian submarine activity in the High North and NATO’s Arctic response were covered by Bloomberg. Though not a direct invasion threat, the story reinforced a perception of renewed Russian aggression, contributing to the market’s modest rebound to 3 % before the final slide to 2 %.

Apr 22 2026

Dutch intelligence says Russia could be ready for NATO conflict within a year

June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%

The MIVD’s annual report warned that Russia could be ready to launch a regional conflict against NATO within a year of the Ukraine war ending, aiming for limited territorial gains. The assessment raised concerns about a possible Russian offensive, pushing the market’s Yes probability up to 5 % in late‑April.

Show more