Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's constitutional term extends until the next presidential election, scheduled no later than May 14, 2028, with no snap election or no-confidence mechanism under the current presidential system, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% against his departure by year-end. Recent defections of opposition CHP mayors to Erdoğan's AKP, including events on May 12 where he personally pinned party badges, signal ruling party consolidation amid economic and opposition challenges. Unconfirmed health rumors from February have dissipated without official developments, while his active schedule—including foreign trips and speeches—reinforces stability. Barring unforeseen events like health crises or parliamentary moves for early polls, traders see minimal risk of exit before 2027.