Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their sustained dominance since the Euro 2024 triumph and top UEFA qualifying group finish, but France's recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil on March 26—despite a red card—has propelled them to the summit of FIFA rankings just ahead of La Roja, tightening the race with England at 11.3%. The full 48-team field, finalized after playoffs last week, features balanced group draws that avoid early clashes among elite sides like Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%), whose strong CONMEBOL campaigns underscore South American depth. This expanded format amplifies upset potential from dark horses like Norway and Japan, keeping probabilities clustered amid transition eras for aging stars and emerging talents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
France 13.6%
England 11.2%
Argentina 9.2%
$500,224,468 Vol.
$500,224,468 Vol.
Spain
16%
France
14%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turkiye
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Spain 15.8%
France 13.6%
England 11.2%
Argentina 9.2%
$500,224,468 Vol.
$500,224,468 Vol.
Spain
16%
France
14%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turkiye
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their sustained dominance since the Euro 2024 triumph and top UEFA qualifying group finish, but France's recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil on March 26—despite a red card—has propelled them to the summit of FIFA rankings just ahead of La Roja, tightening the race with England at 11.3%. The full 48-team field, finalized after playoffs last week, features balanced group draws that avoid early clashes among elite sides like Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%), whose strong CONMEBOL campaigns underscore South American depth. This expanded format amplifies upset potential from dark horses like Norway and Japan, keeping probabilities clustered amid transition eras for aging stars and emerging talents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions