How low will Lake Mead drop?

1,028–1,033 ft 44.5%

Below 1,028 ft 45%

1,033–1,038 ft 8.0%

Above 1,038 ft 2.3%

$23,330 Vol.

Apr 15, 2027

Above 1,038 ft

$4,503 Vol.

1,033–1,038 ft

$2,229 Vol.

1,028–1,033 ft

$6,152 Vol.

45%

Below 1,028 ft

$10,446 Vol.

45%

1,028–1,033 ft 44.5%

Below 1,028 ft 45%

1,033–1,038 ft 8.0%

Above 1,038 ft 2.3%

$23,330 Vol.

Apr 15, 2027

Above 1,038 ft

$4,503 Vol.

1,033–1,038 ft

$2,229 Vol.

1,028–1,033 ft

$6,152 Vol.

45%

Below 1,028 ft

$10,446 Vol.

45%

Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Volume

$23,330

End Date

Apr 15, 2027

Market Opened

Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

Volume

$23,330

End Date

Apr 15, 2027

Market Opened

Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will Lake Mead drop?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1,028–1,033 ft" at 45%, followed by "Below 1,028 ft" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How low will Lake Mead drop?" has generated $23.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How low will Lake Mead drop?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will Lake Mead drop?" is "1,028–1,033 ft" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Below 1,028 ft" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will Lake Mead drop?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "How low will Lake Mead drop?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $23.3K traded on “How low will Lake Mead drop?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "How low will Lake Mead drop?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 45¢ for "1,028–1,033 ft" in the "How low will Lake Mead drop?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 45% chance that "1,028–1,033 ft" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 45¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 55¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "How low will Lake Mead drop?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 15, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "How low will Lake Mead drop?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "How low will Lake Mead drop?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

How low will Lake Mead drop?

How low will Lake Mead drop?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Comments

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "How low will Lake Mead drop?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "How low will Lake Mead drop?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "How low will Lake Mead drop?"?

What are the current odds for "How low will Lake Mead drop?"?

How will "How low will Lake Mead drop?" be resolved?

Can I follow "How low will Lake Mead drop?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "How low will Lake Mead drop?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "How low will Lake Mead drop?"?

What does a price of 45¢ for "1,028–1,033 ft" mean?

When does the "How low will Lake Mead drop?" market close?

What are traders saying about "How low will Lake Mead drop?"?

What is Polymarket?

How low will Lake Mead drop?

How low will Lake Mead drop?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Comments

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "How low will Lake Mead drop?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "How low will Lake Mead drop?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "How low will Lake Mead drop?"?

What are the current odds for "How low will Lake Mead drop?"?

How will "How low will Lake Mead drop?" be resolved?

Can I follow "How low will Lake Mead drop?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "How low will Lake Mead drop?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "How low will Lake Mead drop?"?

What does a price of 45¢ for "1,028–1,033 ft" mean?

When does the "How low will Lake Mead drop?" market close?

What are traders saying about "How low will Lake Mead drop?"?

What is Polymarket?