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Sports·Chess

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner

Market icon
Sports·Chess

2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner

Fabiano Caruana 28%

Hikaru Nakamura 19%

Javokhir Sindarov 17%

Wei Yi 13%

Polymarket

$1,236,967 Vol.

Fabiano Caruana 28%

Hikaru Nakamura 19%

Javokhir Sindarov 17%

Wei Yi 13%

Polymarket

$1,236,967 Vol.

Fabiano Caruana

$104,004 Vol.

28%

Hikaru Nakamura

$123,152 Vol.

19%

Javokhir Sindarov

$89,065 Vol.

17%

Wei Yi

$198,705 Vol.

13%

Praggnanandhaa R

$77,742 Vol.

12%

Anish Giri

$87,843 Vol.

10%

Andrey Esipenko

$451,650 Vol.

4%

Matthias Bluebaum

$112,328 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Fabiano Caruana leads trader consensus at 29.5% implied probability for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament winner, reflecting his battle-tested classical consistency and 2018 Candidates victory amid a double round-robin format starting March 29 in Cyprus. Hikaru Nakamura trails at 18.5% despite his top 2810 rating, as critiques from GMs like Nepomniachtchi highlight his lighter classical schedule versus rapid/blitz dominance. Javokhir Sindarov's 17% share stems from his surprise 2025 World Cup triumph in Goa, edging Praggnanandhaa R (12%)—recent FIDE Circuit 2025 leader—and Wei Yi (12.5%), with youth and momentum fueling their upset potential in this blend-of-generations field lacking a clear dominant favorite. Recent pairings and pre-tournament previews underscore the tight margins.

Fabiano Caruana leads trader consensus at 29.5% implied probability for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament winner, reflecting his battle-tested classical consistency and 2018 Candidates victory amid a double round-robin format starting March 29 in Cyprus. Hikaru Nakamura trails at 18.5% despite his top 2810 rating, as critiques from GMs like Nepomniachtchi highlight his lighter classical schedule versus rapid/blitz dominance. Javokhir Sindarov's 17% share stems from his surprise 2025 World Cup triumph in Goa, edging Praggnanandhaa R (12%)—recent FIDE Circuit 2025 leader—and Wei Yi (12.5%), with youth and momentum fueling their upset potential in this blend-of-generations field lacking a clear dominant favorite. Recent pairings and pre-tournament previews underscore the tight margins.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament scheduled for March 29 - April 16, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament per the rules of the FIDE, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament is cancelled, or postponed after April 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIDE; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Fabiano Caruana leads trader consensus at 29.5% implied probability for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament winner, reflecting his battle-tested classical consistency and 2018 Candidates victory amid a double round-robin format starting March 29 in Cyprus. Hikaru Nakamura trails at 18.5% despite his top 2810 rating, as critiques from GMs like Nepomniachtchi highlight his lighter classical schedule versus rapid/blitz dominance. Javokhir Sindarov's 17% share stems from his surprise 2025 World Cup triumph in Goa, edging Praggnanandhaa R (12%)—recent FIDE Circuit 2025 leader—and Wei Yi (12.5%), with youth and momentum fueling their upset potential in this blend-of-generations field lacking a clear dominant favorite. Recent pairings and pre-tournament previews underscore the tight margins.

Fabiano Caruana leads trader consensus at 29.5% implied probability for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament winner, reflecting his battle-tested classical consistency and 2018 Candidates victory amid a double round-robin format starting March 29 in Cyprus. Hikaru Nakamura trails at 18.5% despite his top 2810 rating, as critiques from GMs like Nepomniachtchi highlight his lighter classical schedule versus rapid/blitz dominance. Javokhir Sindarov's 17% share stems from his surprise 2025 World Cup triumph in Goa, edging Praggnanandhaa R (12%)—recent FIDE Circuit 2025 leader—and Wei Yi (12.5%), with youth and momentum fueling their upset potential in this blend-of-generations field lacking a clear dominant favorite. Recent pairings and pre-tournament previews underscore the tight margins.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fabiano Caruana" at 28%, followed by "Hikaru Nakamura" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" is "Fabiano Caruana" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Hikaru Nakamura" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament: Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.