GameStop's market-implied 98% probability of not acquiring eBay reflects the stark valuation mismatch—GameStop's roughly $11-12 billion market cap versus eBay's approximately $50 billion-plus equity value—and eBay's May 2026 board rejection of the $125-per-share cash-and-stock bid as neither credible nor attractive due to financing uncertainties and leverage risks. GameStop's subsequent buildup to a 9.8% stake and authorized share increase have not overcome eBay's focus on standalone execution or the operational challenges of integrating a smaller retailer with a larger marketplace operator. While activist pressure or a revised proposal could emerge as tail risks near shareholder votes or regulatory filings, the absence of binding commitments and persistent credit concerns sustain trader consensus against deal completion.