Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a 71% implied probability of topping LMSYS Chatbot Arena by May 31, driven by its dominance on coding leaderboards—boasting a 1549 Elo score as of early April—and superior agentic performance in real-world tasks like terminal coding and long-horizon planning. Trader consensus reflects recent user validations of Claude's edge despite minor reported regressions in memory and context handling, alongside Anthropic's revenue surpassing OpenAI's and a withheld ultra-capable cybersecurity model signaling ongoing frontier advances. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 20.5% after leading factual benchmarks like GPQA (94.3%) and multimodal reasoning, positioning it as the chief challenger amid rumors of imminent updates. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (4.9%) and xAI's rising Grok 4 (3.7%) lag due to inconsistent leaderboard showings, though potential pre-May releases could shift dynamics before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 71%
구글 21%
OpenAI 4.9%
xAI 3.7%
$156,443 거래량
$156,443 거래량
2026.05.31
Anthropic
71%
구글
21%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
4%
메타
1%
DeepSeek
1%
알리바바
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
문샷
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
바이두
<1%
아마존
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
메이투안
<1%
마이크로소프트
<1%
Anthropic 71%
구글 21%
OpenAI 4.9%
xAI 3.7%
$156,443 거래량
$156,443 거래량
2026.05.31
Anthropic
$20,878 거래량
71%
구글
$13,683 거래량
21%
OpenAI
$11,628 거래량
5%
xAI
$12,615 거래량
4%
메타
$9,821 거래량
1%
DeepSeek
$11,663 거래량
1%
알리바바
$11,125 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$7,709 거래량
<1%
문샷
$8,689 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$8,953 거래량
<1%
바이두
$7,821 거래량
<1%
아마존
$7,714 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$7,799 거래량
<1%
메이투안
$8,560 거래량
<1%
마이크로소프트
$7,785 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a 71% implied probability of topping LMSYS Chatbot Arena by May 31, driven by its dominance on coding leaderboards—boasting a 1549 Elo score as of early April—and superior agentic performance in real-world tasks like terminal coding and long-horizon planning. Trader consensus reflects recent user validations of Claude's edge despite minor reported regressions in memory and context handling, alongside Anthropic's revenue surpassing OpenAI's and a withheld ultra-capable cybersecurity model signaling ongoing frontier advances. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 20.5% after leading factual benchmarks like GPQA (94.3%) and multimodal reasoning, positioning it as the chief challenger amid rumors of imminent updates. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (4.9%) and xAI's rising Grok 4 (3.7%) lag due to inconsistent leaderboard showings, though potential pre-May releases could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
거래량
$156,443종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a 71% implied probability of topping LMSYS Chatbot Arena by May 31, driven by its dominance on coding leaderboards—boasting a 1549 Elo score as of early April—and superior agentic performance in real-world tasks like terminal coding and long-horizon planning. Trader consensus reflects recent user validations of Claude's edge despite minor reported regressions in memory and context handling, alongside Anthropic's revenue surpassing OpenAI's and a withheld ultra-capable cybersecurity model signaling ongoing frontier advances. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 20.5% after leading factual benchmarks like GPQA (94.3%) and multimodal reasoning, positioning it as the chief challenger amid rumors of imminent updates. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (4.9%) and xAI's rising Grok 4 (3.7%) lag due to inconsistent leaderboard showings, though potential pre-May releases could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$156,443종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a 71% implied probability of topping LMSYS Chatbot Arena by May 31, driven by its dominance on coding leaderboards—boasting a 1549 Elo score as of early April—and superior agentic performance in real-world tasks like terminal coding and long-horizon planning. Trader consensus reflects recent user validations of Claude's edge despite minor reported regressions in memory and context handling, alongside Anthropic's revenue surpassing OpenAI's and a withheld ultra-capable cybersecurity model signaling ongoing frontier advances. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 20.5% after leading factual benchmarks like GPQA (94.3%) and multimodal reasoning, positioning it as the chief challenger amid rumors of imminent updates. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (4.9%) and xAI's rising Grok 4 (3.7%) lag due to inconsistent leaderboard showings, though potential pre-May releases could shift dynamics before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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