Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7's dominant Elo scores in coding (1549) and agentic tasks, consistently ranking just behind Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (top overall at ~1492+ on related arenas) and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4. Recent April releases, including Anthropic's hybrid reasoning upgrades and strong blind-test battles, have solidified this positioning amid fierce competition from 20+ frontier models like MiniMax M2.7 and Qwen3.6. Google's secondary Gemini 3 Pro trails at 13% odds due to narrower multimodal leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex lags at 5.5% on reasoning benchmarks; final votes through April 30 could shift with last-minute evals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 74%
구글 13%
OpenAI 5.5%
메타 1.7%
$598,497 거래량
$598,497 거래량

Anthropic
74%

구글
13%

OpenAI
6%

메타
2%

DeepSeek
<1%

xAI
<1%

바이두
<1%

알리바바
<1%

바이트댄스
<1%

아마존
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

마이크로소프트
<1%

미스트랄
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

메이투안
<1%
Anthropic 74%
구글 13%
OpenAI 5.5%
메타 1.7%
$598,497 거래량
$598,497 거래량

Anthropic
74%

구글
13%

OpenAI
6%

메타
2%

DeepSeek
<1%

xAI
<1%

바이두
<1%

알리바바
<1%

바이트댄스
<1%

아마존
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

마이크로소프트
<1%

미스트랄
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

메이투안
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7's dominant Elo scores in coding (1549) and agentic tasks, consistently ranking just behind Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (top overall at ~1492+ on related arenas) and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4. Recent April releases, including Anthropic's hybrid reasoning upgrades and strong blind-test battles, have solidified this positioning amid fierce competition from 20+ frontier models like MiniMax M2.7 and Qwen3.6. Google's secondary Gemini 3 Pro trails at 13% odds due to narrower multimodal leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex lags at 5.5% on reasoning benchmarks; final votes through April 30 could shift with last-minute evals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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