Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 67.5% implied probability to hold the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16, which catapulted the model to the #1 Elo ranking around 1,989—surpassing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (21.5% odds, ~1,946 Elo) in overall performance, coding, and creative tasks. This edge stems from enhanced hybrid reasoning and a 1M-token context window, reinforcing Anthropic's frontier lead amid tight competition. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 trails at lower benchmarks (9.0% odds), while others like xAI lag due to unproven scaling. Watch for pre-May announcements from Google or OpenAI, as leaderboard volatility persists with rapid model iterations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 68%
Google 23%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.1%
$11,763 거래량
$11,763 거래량
2026.05.31
Anthropic
68%
23%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
3%
Alibaba
2%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 68%
Google 23%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.1%
$11,763 거래량
$11,763 거래량
2026.05.31
Anthropic
$1,192 거래량
68%
$1,205 거래량
23%
OpenAI
$740 거래량
9%
xAI
$619 거래량
3%
Alibaba
$663 거래량
2%
Meta
$634 거래량
2%
DeepSeek
$1,223 거래량
1%
Microsoft
$744 거래량
<1%
Amazon
$595 거래량
<1%
Mistral
$750 거래량
<1%
Meituan
$599 거래량
<1%
ByteDance
$745 거래량
<1%
Moonshot
$612 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$719 거래량
<1%
Baidu
$720 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 67.5% implied probability to hold the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16, which catapulted the model to the #1 Elo ranking around 1,989—surpassing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (21.5% odds, ~1,946 Elo) in overall performance, coding, and creative tasks. This edge stems from enhanced hybrid reasoning and a 1M-token context window, reinforcing Anthropic's frontier lead amid tight competition. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 trails at lower benchmarks (9.0% odds), while others like xAI lag due to unproven scaling. Watch for pre-May announcements from Google or OpenAI, as leaderboard volatility persists with rapid model iterations.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$11,763종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 67.5% implied probability to hold the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16, which catapulted the model to the #1 Elo ranking around 1,989—surpassing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (21.5% odds, ~1,946 Elo) in overall performance, coding, and creative tasks. This edge stems from enhanced hybrid reasoning and a 1M-token context window, reinforcing Anthropic's frontier lead amid tight competition. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 trails at lower benchmarks (9.0% odds), while others like xAI lag due to unproven scaling. Watch for pre-May announcements from Google or OpenAI, as leaderboard volatility persists with rapid model iterations.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$11,763종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 67.5% implied probability to hold the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16, which catapulted the model to the #1 Elo ranking around 1,989—surpassing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (21.5% odds, ~1,946 Elo) in overall performance, coding, and creative tasks. This edge stems from enhanced hybrid reasoning and a 1M-token context window, reinforcing Anthropic's frontier lead amid tight competition. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 trails at lower benchmarks (9.0% odds), while others like xAI lag due to unproven scaling. Watch for pre-May announcements from Google or OpenAI, as leaderboard volatility persists with rapid model iterations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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