Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 variants—particularly the "Thinking" mode—dominating the top three spots with superior Elo ratings around 1500+ in reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks as of mid-April. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent model releases and fine-tuning, outpacing Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (strong in multimodal benchmarks but trailing overall) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (solid but third-tier). With just 11 days left, traders see little room for rivals to displace Anthropic's lineup absent a surprise frontier model drop, though aggressive scaling announcements from OpenAI or Google could spark a late shift.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트앤트로픽 91%
OpenAI 5.3%
구글 2.4%
딥시크 <1%
$107,466 거래량
$107,466 거래량

앤트로픽
91%

OpenAI
5%

구글
2%

딥시크
1%

메타
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

문샷
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

xAI
<1%

바이두
<1%

아마존
<1%

미스트랄
<1%

메이투안
<1%

알리바바
<1%

마이크로소프트
<1%
앤트로픽 91%
OpenAI 5.3%
구글 2.4%
딥시크 <1%
$107,466 거래량
$107,466 거래량

앤트로픽
91%

OpenAI
5%

구글
2%

딥시크
1%

메타
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

문샷
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

xAI
<1%

바이두
<1%

아마존
<1%

미스트랄
<1%

메이투안
<1%

알리바바
<1%

마이크로소프트
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 variants—particularly the "Thinking" mode—dominating the top three spots with superior Elo ratings around 1500+ in reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks as of mid-April. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent model releases and fine-tuning, outpacing Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (strong in multimodal benchmarks but trailing overall) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (solid but third-tier). With just 11 days left, traders see little room for rivals to displace Anthropic's lineup absent a surprise frontier model drop, though aggressive scaling announcements from OpenAI or Google could spark a late shift.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문