Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 66.5% implied probability to an OpenAI GPT-5.5 release on April 23, driven by persistent leaks about the model—codenamed "Spud"—including claims of completed pretraining, superior benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, and aggressive pricing around $2.50–$12 per million tokens. These rumors intensified over the past week following Sam Altman's March 24 hint of a release "in a few weeks," with no launch during the speculated April 14–16 window, shifting sentiment toward mid-to-late April amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's recent Opus updates. While unverified, the skin-in-the-game bets reflect optimism for a natively multimodal large language model upgrade, though delays from safety red-teaming or regulatory scrutiny remain possible before month's end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4월 23일 66%
4월 30일까지 미출시 9.7%
4월 30일 6.9%
4월 26일 5.1%
$94,681 거래량
$94,681 거래량
2026.04.30
4월 16일
2%
4월 17일
<1%
4월 18일
<1%
4월 19일
1%
4월 20일
2%
4월 21일
<1%
4월 22일
4%
4월 23일
66%
4월 24일
<1%
4월 25일
<1%
4월 26일
5%
4월 27일
<1%
4월 28일
1%
4월 29일
<1%
4월 30일
7%
4월 30일까지 미출시
10%
4월 23일 66%
4월 30일까지 미출시 9.7%
4월 30일 6.9%
4월 26일 5.1%
$94,681 거래량
$94,681 거래량
2026.04.30
4월 16일
$44,868 거래량
2%
4월 17일
$2,032 거래량
<1%
4월 18일
$1,782 거래량
<1%
4월 19일
$1,917 거래량
1%
4월 20일
$1,322 거래량
2%
4월 21일
$1,742 거래량
<1%
4월 22일
$1,985 거래량
4%
4월 23일
$18,940 거래량
66%
4월 24일
$323 거래량
<1%
4월 25일
$185 거래량
<1%
4월 26일
$1,400 거래량
5%
4월 27일
$1,041 거래량
<1%
4월 28일
$1,408 거래량
1%
4월 29일
$1,455 거래량
<1%
4월 30일
$2,750 거래량
7%
4월 30일까지 미출시
$4,347 거래량
10%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 66.5% implied probability to an OpenAI GPT-5.5 release on April 23, driven by persistent leaks about the model—codenamed "Spud"—including claims of completed pretraining, superior benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, and aggressive pricing around $2.50–$12 per million tokens. These rumors intensified over the past week following Sam Altman's March 24 hint of a release "in a few weeks," with no launch during the speculated April 14–16 window, shifting sentiment toward mid-to-late April amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's recent Opus updates. While unverified, the skin-in-the-game bets reflect optimism for a natively multimodal large language model upgrade, though delays from safety red-teaming or regulatory scrutiny remain possible before month's end.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
거래량
$94,681종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 66.5% implied probability to an OpenAI GPT-5.5 release on April 23, driven by persistent leaks about the model—codenamed "Spud"—including claims of completed pretraining, superior benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, and aggressive pricing around $2.50–$12 per million tokens. These rumors intensified over the past week following Sam Altman's March 24 hint of a release "in a few weeks," with no launch during the speculated April 14–16 window, shifting sentiment toward mid-to-late April amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's recent Opus updates. While unverified, the skin-in-the-game bets reflect optimism for a natively multimodal large language model upgrade, though delays from safety red-teaming or regulatory scrutiny remain possible before month's end.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$94,681종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 66.5% implied probability to an OpenAI GPT-5.5 release on April 23, driven by persistent leaks about the model—codenamed "Spud"—including claims of completed pretraining, superior benchmarks in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, and aggressive pricing around $2.50–$12 per million tokens. These rumors intensified over the past week following Sam Altman's March 24 hint of a release "in a few weeks," with no launch during the speculated April 14–16 window, shifting sentiment toward mid-to-late April amid competitive pressure from Anthropic's recent Opus updates. While unverified, the skin-in-the-game bets reflect optimism for a natively multimodal large language model upgrade, though delays from safety red-teaming or regulatory scrutiny remain possible before month's end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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