Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain odds of 100% for "Yes" on no interest rate changes, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's November FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%, signaling a pause after September's 50-basis-point cut amid sticky inflation above 2% and robust jobs data. Market-implied probabilities from CME FedWatch align closely, pricing minimal near-term adjustment risk ahead of the December 18 meeting, with dot-plot projections for just two 2025 cuts. This high confidence stems from resilient U.S. economic growth and Powell's data-dependent rhetoric emphasizing caution. Tail risks include a surprise inflation spike prompting hikes or sharp labor weakness forcing emergency cuts, though both appear improbable given current trajectories.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$0.00 거래량
$0.00 거래량
2026.03.20
$0.00 거래량
$0.00 거래량
2026.03.20
This market will resolve immediately to “No” if any of the following conditions are met at any point by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- The United States Federal Reserve increases or decreases the upper bound of the Target Federal Funds Rate.
- The Bank of Japan increases or decreases the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate.
- The European Central Bank increases or decreases the upper bound of the deposit facility rate.
- The Bank of Canada increases or decreases the target for the overnight rate.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing-Ever-Happens-Interest-Rates-e9f9058457.jpgTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain odds of 100% for "Yes" on no interest rate changes, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's November FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%, signaling a pause after September's 50-basis-point cut amid sticky inflation above 2% and robust jobs data. Market-implied probabilities from CME FedWatch align closely, pricing minimal near-term adjustment risk ahead of the December 18 meeting, with dot-plot projections for just two 2025 cuts. This high confidence stems from resilient U.S. economic growth and Powell's data-dependent rhetoric emphasizing caution. Tail risks include a surprise inflation spike prompting hikes or sharp labor weakness forcing emergency cuts, though both appear improbable given current trajectories.
This market will resolve immediately to “No” if any of the following conditions are met at any point by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- The United States Federal Reserve increases or decreases the upper bound of the Target Federal Funds Rate.
- The Bank of Japan increases or decreases the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate.
- The European Central Bank increases or decreases the upper bound of the deposit facility rate.
- The Bank of Canada increases or decreases the target for the overnight rate.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing-Ever-Happens-Interest-Rates-e9f9058457.jpg
- The United States Federal Reserve increases or decreases the upper bound of the Target Federal Funds Rate.
- The Bank of Japan increases or decreases the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate.
- The European Central Bank increases or decreases the upper bound of the deposit facility rate.
- The Bank of Canada increases or decreases the target for the overnight rate.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing-Ever-Happens-Interest-Rates-e9f9058457.jpg
마켓 개설일: Jan 20, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
거래량
$0종료일
2026.03.20마켓 개설일
Jan 20, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: Yes
이의 없음
최종 결과: Yes
This market will resolve immediately to “No” if any of the following conditions are met at any point by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- The United States Federal Reserve increases or decreases the upper bound of the Target Federal Funds Rate.
- The Bank of Japan increases or decreases the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate.
- The European Central Bank increases or decreases the upper bound of the deposit facility rate.
- The Bank of Canada increases or decreases the target for the overnight rate.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing-Ever-Happens-Interest-Rates-e9f9058457.jpgTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain odds of 100% for "Yes" on no interest rate changes, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's November FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%, signaling a pause after September's 50-basis-point cut amid sticky inflation above 2% and robust jobs data. Market-implied probabilities from CME FedWatch align closely, pricing minimal near-term adjustment risk ahead of the December 18 meeting, with dot-plot projections for just two 2025 cuts. This high confidence stems from resilient U.S. economic growth and Powell's data-dependent rhetoric emphasizing caution. Tail risks include a surprise inflation spike prompting hikes or sharp labor weakness forcing emergency cuts, though both appear improbable given current trajectories.
This market will resolve immediately to “No” if any of the following conditions are met at any point by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- The United States Federal Reserve increases or decreases the upper bound of the Target Federal Funds Rate.
- The Bank of Japan increases or decreases the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate.
- The European Central Bank increases or decreases the upper bound of the deposit facility rate.
- The Bank of Canada increases or decreases the target for the overnight rate.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing-Ever-Happens-Interest-Rates-e9f9058457.jpg
- The United States Federal Reserve increases or decreases the upper bound of the Target Federal Funds Rate.
- The Bank of Japan increases or decreases the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate.
- The European Central Bank increases or decreases the upper bound of the deposit facility rate.
- The Bank of Canada increases or decreases the target for the overnight rate.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing-Ever-Happens-Interest-Rates-e9f9058457.jpg
거래량
$0종료일
2026.03.20마켓 개설일
Jan 20, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: Yes
이의 없음
최종 결과: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain odds of 100% for "Yes" on no interest rate changes, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's November FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%, signaling a pause after September's 50-basis-point cut amid sticky inflation above 2% and robust jobs data. Market-implied probabilities from CME FedWatch align closely, pricing minimal near-term adjustment risk ahead of the December 18 meeting, with dot-plot projections for just two 2025 cuts. This high confidence stems from resilient U.S. economic growth and Powell's data-dependent rhetoric emphasizing caution. Tail risks include a surprise inflation spike prompting hikes or sharp labor weakness forcing emergency cuts, though both appear improbable given current trajectories.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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