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일본 총선 3위?

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일본 총선 3위?

일본 유신회 100.0%

자민당 <1%

국민민주당 <1%

레이와 <1%

Polymarket

$161,503 Vol.

일본 유신회 100.0%

자민당 <1%

국민민주당 <1%

레이와 <1%

Polymarket

$161,503 Vol.

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자민당

$3,450 Vol.

아니오

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국민민주당

$17,417 Vol.

아니오

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레이와

$5,039 Vol.

아니오

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일본 공산당

$5,170 Vol.

아니오

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일본 보수당

$4,774 Vol.

아니오

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미래당

$11,319 Vol.

아니오

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중도개혁연합

$17,647 Vol.

아니오

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일본 유신회

$29,810 Vol.

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산세이토

$53,077 Vol.

아니오

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사회민주당

$13,798 Vol.

아니오

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) election.

If the results are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won in the House of Representatives of the Japanese National Diet. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market (including through merger), the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition (including through merger), with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
볼륨
$161,503
종료일
Feb 8, 2026
생성일
Jan 20, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) election. If the results are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won in the House of Representatives of the Japanese National Diet. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market (including through merger), the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition (including through merger), with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

제안된 결과: 아니오

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최종 결과: 아니오

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Frequently Asked Questions

"일본 총선 3위?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "일본 유신회" at 100%, followed by "자민당" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "일본 총선 3위?" has generated $161.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "일본 총선 3위?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "일본 총선 3위?" is "일본 유신회" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "자민당" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "일본 총선 3위?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.