Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?
$232,240 Vol.
$232,240 Vol.
May 1, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2024 shows an increase of 1.37°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of 1.37°C or greater for March 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2024 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2024 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No."This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2024 shows an increase of 1.37°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of 1.37°C or greater for March 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2024 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2024 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No."
An anomaly of 1.37°C or greater for March 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2024 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2024 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No."
作成日: Feb 27, 2024, 1:58 PM ET
音量
$232,240終了日
May 1, 2024作成日時
Feb 27, 2024, 1:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x6A9D22261...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?
$232,240 Vol.
$232,240 Vol.
May 1, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2024 shows an increase of 1.37°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of 1.37°C or greater for March 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2024 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2024 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No."This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2024 shows an increase of 1.37°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of 1.37°C or greater for March 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2024 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2024 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No."
An anomaly of 1.37°C or greater for March 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2024 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2024 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No."
音量
$232,240終了日
May 1, 2024作成日時
Feb 27, 2024, 1:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x6A9D22261...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
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外部リンクに注意してください。
Frequently Asked Questions
"Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?" has generated $232.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 27, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current probability for "Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.
The resolution rules for "Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
Frequently Asked Questions