Market icon
エコノミー·住宅·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?

Market icon
エコノミー·住宅·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?

1.185 - 1.195百万 27.5%

1.175 - 1.185m 23%

1.165 - 1.175m 13%

1.155 - 1.165m 7.4%

Polymarket
NEW

1.185 - 1.195百万 27.5%

1.175 - 1.185m 23%

1.165 - 1.175m 13%

1.155 - 1.165m 7.4%

Polymarket
NEW

<1.125m

$111 Vol.

7%

1.125 - 1.135m

$842 Vol.

7%

1.135 - 1.145m

$297 Vol.

4%

1.145 - 1.155m

$61 Vol.

6%

1.155 - 1.165m

$139 Vol.

24%

1.165 - 1.175m

$801 Vol.

20%

1.175 - 1.185m

$172 Vol.

32%

1.185 - 1.195百万

$470 Vol.

28%

>1.195m

$481 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/20)Trader sentiment on San Francisco metro median home values clusters tightly around $1.155M–$1.195M, with the 1.175M–1.185M bin leading at 32% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty just days from April 1 resolution amid steady but unspectacular appreciation. Zillow's February 2026 Home Value Index (ZHVI) registered $1,113,913 for San Francisco, up 0.6% month-over-month yet down 2% year-over-year, while local March reports highlight surging median sale prices (up 20–23% YoY to ~$1.9M–$2.0M for single-family homes) and median days-on-market shrinking to 7, signaling intense buyer competition and low inventory. Differentiating factors include late-March transaction momentum potentially lifting the daily ZHVI versus seasonal softening risks, with traders pricing a modest spring rebound continuation.

Trader sentiment on San Francisco metro median home values clusters tightly around $1.155M–$1.195M, with the 1.175M–1.185M bin leading at 32% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty just days from April 1 resolution amid steady but unspectacular appreciation. Zillow's February 2026 Home Value Index (ZHVI) registered $1,113,913 for San Francisco, up 0.6% month-over-month yet down 2% year-over-year, while local March reports highlight surging median sale prices (up 20–23% YoY to ~$1.9M–$2.0M for single-family homes) and median days-on-market shrinking to 7, signaling intense buyer competition and low inventory. Differentiating factors include late-March transaction momentum potentially lifting the daily ZHVI versus seasonal softening risks, with traders pricing a modest spring rebound continuation.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/20)Trader sentiment on San Francisco metro median home values clusters tightly around $1.155M–$1.195M, with the 1.175M–1.185M bin leading at 32% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty just days from April 1 resolution amid steady but unspectacular appreciation. Zillow's February 2026 Home Value Index (ZHVI) registered $1,113,913 for San Francisco, up 0.6% month-over-month yet down 2% year-over-year, while local March reports highlight surging median sale prices (up 20–23% YoY to ~$1.9M–$2.0M for single-family homes) and median days-on-market shrinking to 7, signaling intense buyer competition and low inventory. Differentiating factors include late-March transaction momentum potentially lifting the daily ZHVI versus seasonal softening risks, with traders pricing a modest spring rebound continuation.

Trader sentiment on San Francisco metro median home values clusters tightly around $1.155M–$1.195M, with the 1.175M–1.185M bin leading at 32% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty just days from April 1 resolution amid steady but unspectacular appreciation. Zillow's February 2026 Home Value Index (ZHVI) registered $1,113,913 for San Francisco, up 0.6% month-over-month yet down 2% year-over-year, while local March reports highlight surging median sale prices (up 20–23% YoY to ~$1.9M–$2.0M for single-family homes) and median days-on-market shrinking to 7, signaling intense buyer competition and low inventory. Differentiating factors include late-March transaction momentum potentially lifting the daily ZHVI versus seasonal softening risks, with traders pricing a modest spring rebound continuation.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?」はPolymarket上の9個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「1.175 - 1.185m」で32%、次いで「1.185 - 1.195百万」が28%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、32¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に32%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Feb 27, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている9個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?」の現在のフロントランナーは「1.175 - 1.185m」で32%であり、市場がこの結果に32%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1.185 - 1.195百万」で28%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。