Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 55% probability for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to close March above 19,000, propelled by sustained AI-driven gains in mega-cap tech leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft, which have lifted the index 8% year-to-date amid robust Q4 earnings beats. Recent FOMC signals of three 2024 rate cuts have eased Treasury yields to 4.2%, bolstering growth stocks, though persistent inflation risks linger. Key catalysts ahead include March 12 CPI data, the March 20 FOMC meeting, and post-earnings volatility from Apple and Amazon; a hotter-than-expected print could trigger 5-7% pullbacks, testing support at 18,200. Historical March seasonality favors upside for NDX by 2.1% median gain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$60,480 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
↓ 20400
2%
↓ 20250
2%
↓ 20100
3%
↓ 19,875
3%
↓ 19650
1%
↓ 19350
2%
↓ 18975
1%
$60,480 Vol.
↓ 20400
$2,904 Vol.
2%
↓ 20250
$768 Vol.
2%
↓ 20100
$162 Vol.
3%
↓ 19,875
$0 Vol.
3%
↓ 19650
$0 Vol.
1%
↓ 19350
$24,866 Vol.
2%
↓ 18975
$31,780 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.
マーケット開始日： Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
音量
$60,480終了日
Apr 1, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/Resolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.
音量
$60,480終了日
Apr 1, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 55% probability for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to close March above 19,000, propelled by sustained AI-driven gains in mega-cap tech leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft, which have lifted the index 8% year-to-date amid robust Q4 earnings beats. Recent FOMC signals of three 2024 rate cuts have eased Treasury yields to 4.2%, bolstering growth stocks, though persistent inflation risks linger. Key catalysts ahead include March 12 CPI data, the March 20 FOMC meeting, and post-earnings volatility from Apple and Amazon; a hotter-than-expected print could trigger 5-7% pullbacks, testing support at 18,200. Historical March seasonality favors upside for NDX by 2.1% median gain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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