Trader sentiment on the S&P 500's 2026 year-end close reflects optimism around projected 20-25% earnings growth fueled by AI capital spending and productivity gains, balanced against elevated valuations near 21x forward earnings and geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions that could pressure energy prices and inflation. With the index near 7,520, the tight distribution across $7,000-$8,000 buckets—led by the >$8,000 outcome at 25%—highlights uncertainty over whether robust corporate results and resilient GDP will push levels higher or if margin pressures and policy shifts cap gains. Upcoming earnings reports and inflation data remain key swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7,000～7,500ドル 25%
7,500～8,000ドル 21%
8,000ドル超 17%
6,000～6,500ドル 13%
$28,058 Vol.
$28,058 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
8%
6,000～6,500ドル
13%
6,500〜7,000ドル
13%
7,000～7,500ドル
25%
7,500～8,000ドル
21%
8,000ドル超
17%
7,000～7,500ドル 25%
7,500～8,000ドル 21%
8,000ドル超 17%
6,000～6,500ドル 13%
$28,058 Vol.
$28,058 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$16,273 Vol.
8%
6,000～6,500ドル
$1,641 Vol.
13%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$2,943 Vol.
13%
7,000～7,500ドル
$1,311 Vol.
25%
7,500～8,000ドル
$2,945 Vol.
21%
8,000ドル超
$2,946 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment on the S&P 500's 2026 year-end close reflects optimism around projected 20-25% earnings growth fueled by AI capital spending and productivity gains, balanced against elevated valuations near 21x forward earnings and geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions that could pressure energy prices and inflation. With the index near 7,520, the tight distribution across $7,000-$8,000 buckets—led by the >$8,000 outcome at 25%—highlights uncertainty over whether robust corporate results and resilient GDP will push levels higher or if margin pressures and policy shifts cap gains. Upcoming earnings reports and inflation data remain key swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$28,058終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment on the S&P 500's 2026 year-end close reflects optimism around projected 20-25% earnings growth fueled by AI capital spending and productivity gains, balanced against elevated valuations near 21x forward earnings and geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions that could pressure energy prices and inflation. With the index near 7,520, the tight distribution across $7,000-$8,000 buckets—led by the >$8,000 outcome at 25%—highlights uncertainty over whether robust corporate results and resilient GDP will push levels higher or if margin pressures and policy shifts cap gains. Upcoming earnings reports and inflation data remain key swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$28,058終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader sentiment on the S&P 500's 2026 year-end close reflects optimism around projected 20-25% earnings growth fueled by AI capital spending and productivity gains, balanced against elevated valuations near 21x forward earnings and geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions that could pressure energy prices and inflation. With the index near 7,520, the tight distribution across $7,000-$8,000 buckets—led by the >$8,000 outcome at 25%—highlights uncertainty over whether robust corporate results and resilient GDP will push levels higher or if margin pressures and policy shifts cap gains. Upcoming earnings reports and inflation data remain key swing factors in this skin-in-the-game consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問