Polymarket traders assign 29% implied probability to an S&P 500 year-end 2026 close in the $6,500-$7,000 range, narrowly ahead of $7,000-$7,500 at 27%, capturing uncertainty over moderate index appreciation from current levels near 7,350 amid resilient 15% calendar-year earnings-per-share growth forecasts. Strong Q1 earnings beats and broadening sector leadership bolster upside potential, yet persistent inflation—fueled by Middle East tensions and surging energy prices—has solidified Fed funds rate expectations at 3.5%-3.75% with no cuts anticipated, tempering valuations. Key differentiators include upcoming CPI releases, June FOMC signals, and Q2 earnings; geopolitical de-escalation could favor higher bins, while hotter data risks downside.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7,000～7,500ドル 26%
6,500〜7,000ドル 25%
6,000ドル未満 21%
6,000～6,500ドル 16%
$24,514 Vol.
$24,514 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
21%
6,000～6,500ドル
16%
6,500〜7,000ドル
25%
7,000～7,500ドル
26%
7,500～8,000ドル
14%
8,000ドル超
14%
7,000～7,500ドル 26%
6,500〜7,000ドル 25%
6,000ドル未満 21%
6,000～6,500ドル 16%
$24,514 Vol.
$24,514 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$15,395 Vol.
21%
6,000～6,500ドル
$1,429 Vol.
16%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$2,328 Vol.
25%
7,000～7,500ドル
$1,114 Vol.
26%
7,500～8,000ドル
$2,009 Vol.
14%
8,000ドル超
$2,240 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign 29% implied probability to an S&P 500 year-end 2026 close in the $6,500-$7,000 range, narrowly ahead of $7,000-$7,500 at 27%, capturing uncertainty over moderate index appreciation from current levels near 7,350 amid resilient 15% calendar-year earnings-per-share growth forecasts. Strong Q1 earnings beats and broadening sector leadership bolster upside potential, yet persistent inflation—fueled by Middle East tensions and surging energy prices—has solidified Fed funds rate expectations at 3.5%-3.75% with no cuts anticipated, tempering valuations. Key differentiators include upcoming CPI releases, June FOMC signals, and Q2 earnings; geopolitical de-escalation could favor higher bins, while hotter data risks downside.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$24,514終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign 29% implied probability to an S&P 500 year-end 2026 close in the $6,500-$7,000 range, narrowly ahead of $7,000-$7,500 at 27%, capturing uncertainty over moderate index appreciation from current levels near 7,350 amid resilient 15% calendar-year earnings-per-share growth forecasts. Strong Q1 earnings beats and broadening sector leadership bolster upside potential, yet persistent inflation—fueled by Middle East tensions and surging energy prices—has solidified Fed funds rate expectations at 3.5%-3.75% with no cuts anticipated, tempering valuations. Key differentiators include upcoming CPI releases, June FOMC signals, and Q2 earnings; geopolitical de-escalation could favor higher bins, while hotter data risks downside.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$24,514終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders assign 29% implied probability to an S&P 500 year-end 2026 close in the $6,500-$7,000 range, narrowly ahead of $7,000-$7,500 at 27%, capturing uncertainty over moderate index appreciation from current levels near 7,350 amid resilient 15% calendar-year earnings-per-share growth forecasts. Strong Q1 earnings beats and broadening sector leadership bolster upside potential, yet persistent inflation—fueled by Middle East tensions and surging energy prices—has solidified Fed funds rate expectations at 3.5%-3.75% with no cuts anticipated, tempering valuations. Key differentiators include upcoming CPI releases, June FOMC signals, and Q2 earnings; geopolitical de-escalation could favor higher bins, while hotter data risks downside.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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