Robust S&P 500 earnings growth, fueled by AI-driven revenue and margin expansion, has anchored trader sentiment toward a year-end 2026 close above 7,500, with the >$8,000 outcome holding the highest implied probability at 37%. At current levels near 7,650, the index has advanced roughly 20% over the past year amid resilient GDP and corporate profit momentum, though elevated PCE inflation near 3.6% and the Fed’s 3.50–3.75% policy range introduce uncertainty over further rate hikes. Recent upward revisions by UBS to an 8,100 target and similar moves by other firms reflect stronger EPS forecasts, yet prediction-market pricing remains tempered by geopolitical oil-price risks and potential valuation pressure. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and third-quarter earnings releases.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8,000ドル超 40%
7,500～8,000ドル 23%
7,000～7,500ドル 16%
6,500〜7,000ドル 12%
$40,121 Vol.
$40,121 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
8%
6,000～6,500ドル
6%
6,500〜7,000ドル
12%
7,000～7,500ドル
16%
7,500～8,000ドル
23%
8,000ドル超
38%
8,000ドル超 40%
7,500～8,000ドル 23%
7,000～7,500ドル 16%
6,500〜7,000ドル 12%
$40,121 Vol.
$40,121 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$20,717 Vol.
8%
6,000～6,500ドル
$2,312 Vol.
6%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$4,408 Vol.
12%
7,000～7,500ドル
$2,534 Vol.
16%
7,500～8,000ドル
$4,060 Vol.
23%
8,000ドル超
$6,090 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust S&P 500 earnings growth, fueled by AI-driven revenue and margin expansion, has anchored trader sentiment toward a year-end 2026 close above 7,500, with the >$8,000 outcome holding the highest implied probability at 37%. At current levels near 7,650, the index has advanced roughly 20% over the past year amid resilient GDP and corporate profit momentum, though elevated PCE inflation near 3.6% and the Fed’s 3.50–3.75% policy range introduce uncertainty over further rate hikes. Recent upward revisions by UBS to an 8,100 target and similar moves by other firms reflect stronger EPS forecasts, yet prediction-market pricing remains tempered by geopolitical oil-price risks and potential valuation pressure. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and third-quarter earnings releases.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$40,121終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust S&P 500 earnings growth, fueled by AI-driven revenue and margin expansion, has anchored trader sentiment toward a year-end 2026 close above 7,500, with the >$8,000 outcome holding the highest implied probability at 37%. At current levels near 7,650, the index has advanced roughly 20% over the past year amid resilient GDP and corporate profit momentum, though elevated PCE inflation near 3.6% and the Fed’s 3.50–3.75% policy range introduce uncertainty over further rate hikes. Recent upward revisions by UBS to an 8,100 target and similar moves by other firms reflect stronger EPS forecasts, yet prediction-market pricing remains tempered by geopolitical oil-price risks and potential valuation pressure. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and third-quarter earnings releases.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$40,121終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETRobust S&P 500 earnings growth, fueled by AI-driven revenue and margin expansion, has anchored trader sentiment toward a year-end 2026 close above 7,500, with the >$8,000 outcome holding the highest implied probability at 37%. At current levels near 7,650, the index has advanced roughly 20% over the past year amid resilient GDP and corporate profit momentum, though elevated PCE inflation near 3.6% and the Fed’s 3.50–3.75% policy range introduce uncertainty over further rate hikes. Recent upward revisions by UBS to an 8,100 target and similar moves by other firms reflect stronger EPS forecasts, yet prediction-market pricing remains tempered by geopolitical oil-price risks and potential valuation pressure. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and third-quarter earnings releases.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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