Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026—the narrow leader over 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500—reflecting heightened caution from recent Middle East escalations steadying oil prices and pushing Fed funds futures toward a 52% chance of hikes from the current 3.5%-3.75% range. Despite the index hovering near 7,023 after record highs this week, JPMorgan's slashed 7,200 year-end target and S&P Global's 2.2% GDP forecast underscore competitive dynamics, pitting persistent inflation risks against FactSet's projected 17% earnings growth. Swing factors include the Fed's June FOMC dot plot, Q2 corporate earnings, and geopolitical resolutions, with elevated valuations amplifying downside sensitivity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6,000ドル未満 33%
7,000～7,500ドル 23%
6,500〜7,000ドル 16%
6,000～6,500ドル 15%
$18,724 Vol.
$18,724 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
33%
6,000～6,500ドル
16%
6,500〜7,000ドル
16%
7,000～7,500ドル
23%
7,500～8,000ドル
10%
8,000ドル超
7%
6,000ドル未満 33%
7,000～7,500ドル 23%
6,500〜7,000ドル 16%
6,000～6,500ドル 15%
$18,724 Vol.
$18,724 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$11,566 Vol.
33%
6,000～6,500ドル
$1,333 Vol.
16%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$1,597 Vol.
16%
7,000～7,500ドル
$892 Vol.
23%
7,500～8,000ドル
$1,570 Vol.
10%
8,000ドル超
$1,767 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026—the narrow leader over 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500—reflecting heightened caution from recent Middle East escalations steadying oil prices and pushing Fed funds futures toward a 52% chance of hikes from the current 3.5%-3.75% range. Despite the index hovering near 7,023 after record highs this week, JPMorgan's slashed 7,200 year-end target and S&P Global's 2.2% GDP forecast underscore competitive dynamics, pitting persistent inflation risks against FactSet's projected 17% earnings growth. Swing factors include the Fed's June FOMC dot plot, Q2 corporate earnings, and geopolitical resolutions, with elevated valuations amplifying downside sensitivity.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$18,724終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026—the narrow leader over 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500—reflecting heightened caution from recent Middle East escalations steadying oil prices and pushing Fed funds futures toward a 52% chance of hikes from the current 3.5%-3.75% range. Despite the index hovering near 7,023 after record highs this week, JPMorgan's slashed 7,200 year-end target and S&P Global's 2.2% GDP forecast underscore competitive dynamics, pitting persistent inflation risks against FactSet's projected 17% earnings growth. Swing factors include the Fed's June FOMC dot plot, Q2 corporate earnings, and geopolitical resolutions, with elevated valuations amplifying downside sensitivity.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$18,724終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket's trader consensus prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026—the narrow leader over 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500—reflecting heightened caution from recent Middle East escalations steadying oil prices and pushing Fed funds futures toward a 52% chance of hikes from the current 3.5%-3.75% range. Despite the index hovering near 7,023 after record highs this week, JPMorgan's slashed 7,200 year-end target and S&P Global's 2.2% GDP forecast underscore competitive dynamics, pitting persistent inflation risks against FactSet's projected 17% earnings growth. Swing factors include the Fed's June FOMC dot plot, Q2 corporate earnings, and geopolitical resolutions, with elevated valuations amplifying downside sensitivity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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