Trader consensus on the S&P 500 closing level at the end of 2026 remains closely divided, with the three highest-probability ranges—above 8,000 at 26%, 7,000 to 7,500 at 24%, and 7,500 to 8,000 at 21%—reflecting balanced views on sustained economic expansion versus moderating growth. Recent inflation trends and Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions continue to shape rate expectations, influencing equity valuations through discounted cash flow models. Corporate earnings growth and potential shifts in fiscal policy add further variables, while upcoming economic releases and central bank communications could tip sentiment toward higher or lower ranges. The spread in market-implied odds underscores the uncertainty inherent in long-term equity forecasts amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8,000ドル超 27%
7,000～7,500ドル 24%
7,500～8,000ドル 21%
6,000～6,500ドル 13%
$28,025 Vol.
$28,025 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
8%
6,000～6,500ドル
13%
6,500〜7,000ドル
12%
7,000～7,500ドル
24%
7,500～8,000ドル
21%
8,000ドル超
27%
8,000ドル超 27%
7,000～7,500ドル 24%
7,500～8,000ドル 21%
6,000～6,500ドル 13%
$28,025 Vol.
$28,025 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$16,273 Vol.
8%
6,000～6,500ドル
$1,641 Vol.
13%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$2,943 Vol.
12%
7,000～7,500ドル
$1,311 Vol.
24%
7,500～8,000ドル
$2,945 Vol.
21%
8,000ドル超
$2,913 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on the S&P 500 closing level at the end of 2026 remains closely divided, with the three highest-probability ranges—above 8,000 at 26%, 7,000 to 7,500 at 24%, and 7,500 to 8,000 at 21%—reflecting balanced views on sustained economic expansion versus moderating growth. Recent inflation trends and Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions continue to shape rate expectations, influencing equity valuations through discounted cash flow models. Corporate earnings growth and potential shifts in fiscal policy add further variables, while upcoming economic releases and central bank communications could tip sentiment toward higher or lower ranges. The spread in market-implied odds underscores the uncertainty inherent in long-term equity forecasts amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$28,025終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on the S&P 500 closing level at the end of 2026 remains closely divided, with the three highest-probability ranges—above 8,000 at 26%, 7,000 to 7,500 at 24%, and 7,500 to 8,000 at 21%—reflecting balanced views on sustained economic expansion versus moderating growth. Recent inflation trends and Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions continue to shape rate expectations, influencing equity valuations through discounted cash flow models. Corporate earnings growth and potential shifts in fiscal policy add further variables, while upcoming economic releases and central bank communications could tip sentiment toward higher or lower ranges. The spread in market-implied odds underscores the uncertainty inherent in long-term equity forecasts amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$28,025終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on the S&P 500 closing level at the end of 2026 remains closely divided, with the three highest-probability ranges—above 8,000 at 26%, 7,000 to 7,500 at 24%, and 7,500 to 8,000 at 21%—reflecting balanced views on sustained economic expansion versus moderating growth. Recent inflation trends and Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions continue to shape rate expectations, influencing equity valuations through discounted cash flow models. Corporate earnings growth and potential shifts in fiscal policy add further variables, while upcoming economic releases and central bank communications could tip sentiment toward higher or lower ranges. The spread in market-implied odds underscores the uncertainty inherent in long-term equity forecasts amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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