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政治·プライマリ

VA -02民主党予備選挙優勝者

Market icon
政治·プライマリ

VA -02民主党予備選挙優勝者

エレイン・ルリア 83%

マット・ストリックラー 4.0%

バーク・ストリングフェロー 3.6%

ニラ・デヴァナス 3.6%

Polymarket
新規

エレイン・ルリア 83%

マット・ストリックラー 4.0%

バーク・ストリングフェロー 3.6%

ニラ・デヴァナス 3.6%

Polymarket
新規

エレイン・ルリア

$1,102 Vol.

83%

マット・ストリックラー

$0 Vol.

4%

バーク・ストリングフェロー

$0 Vol.

4%

ニラ・デヴァナス

$779 Vol.

4%

ニコラウス・スライスター

$0 Vol.

3%

パトリック・モソルフ

$1,490 Vol.

3%

ジェームズ・オシフ

$1,097 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, fueled by her superior fundraising—$1.75 million raised in Q1 2026 alone, yielding $2 million cash on hand, per her April 2 announcement—and inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program in February. As a Navy veteran and prior district representative, she holds strong name recognition in the military-heavy district, dwarfing rivals like James Osyf ($411,000 raised) and Nila Devanath ($200,000). Challengers Matt Strickler, Burk Stringfellow, Nicolaus Sleister, and Patrick Mosolf trail with modest funds amid a crowded field; no public primary polls exist, but party consolidation pressures and the May 26 filing deadline could further solidify her path absent major shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$4,468
終了日
2026/06/16
マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, fueled by her superior fundraising—$1.75 million raised in Q1 2026 alone, yielding $2 million cash on hand, per her April 2 announcement—and inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program in February. As a Navy veteran and prior district representative, she holds strong name recognition in the military-heavy district, dwarfing rivals like James Osyf ($411,000 raised) and Nila Devanath ($200,000). Challengers Matt Strickler, Burk Stringfellow, Nicolaus Sleister, and Patrick Mosolf trail with modest funds amid a crowded field; no public primary polls exist, but party consolidation pressures and the May 26 filing deadline could further solidify her path absent major shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$4,468
終了日
2026/06/16
マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「VA -02民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「エレイン・ルリア」で83%、次いで「ジェームズ・オシフ」が6%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、83¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に83%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「VA -02民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Nov 25, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「VA -02民主党予備選挙優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「VA -02民主党予備選挙優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「エレイン・ルリア」で83%であり、市場がこの結果に83%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ジェームズ・オシフ」で6%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「VA -02民主党予備選挙優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。