Market icon

米国がイランを攻撃したのは... ?

Jun 30

$244,120,727 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$244,120,727
終了日
Jun 30, 2026
作成日時
Feb 9, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てウィンドウ

最終

外部リンクに注意してください。

Market icon

米国がイランを攻撃したのは... ?

Jun 30

$244,120,727 Vol.

Polymarket

2月12日

$4,167,126 Vol.

<1%

2月13日

$11,641,246 Vol.

1%

2月14日

$558,528 Vol.

2%

2月15日

$240,113 Vol.

2%

2月16日

$154,197 Vol.

3%

2月17日

$101,676 Vol.

4%

2月18日

$122,319 Vol.

5%

2月19日

$29,559 Vol.

6%

2月20日

$2,360,058 Vol.

6%

2月28日

$13,860,990 Vol.

12%

3月15日

$42,258 Vol.

22%

3月31日

$8,317,371 Vol.

32%

6月30日

$4,758,754 Vol.

42%

外部リンクに注意してください。