Polymarket traders price a 62% implied probability for the S&P 500 finishing the week of March 16 above 6,000, driven primarily by anticipation of the FOMC meeting on March 18-19, where steady 4.25-4.50% fed funds rate and updated dot plot projections could signal fewer 2025 rate cuts amid sticky inflation. Current SPX at 5,982 reflects recent gains from cooling PPI data, but hawkish CPI prints have capped upside, with VIX at 16 signaling moderate volatility. Key risks include Thursday's unemployment claims and Friday's Michigan sentiment; a close above 6,000 requires sustained momentum past resistance at 6,010, while historical March FOMC weeks average +0.8% SPX returns. Trader consensus weighs Fed rhetoric heavily against overbought tech momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$6,277 Vol.
Mar 20, 2026
5,550
Yes
5,625
はい
5,700
はい
5,775
Yes
5,850
はい
5,925
はい
6,000
はい
$6,277 Vol.
5,550
$0 Vol.
Yes
5,625
$0 Vol.
はい
5,700
$0 Vol.
はい
5,775
$3,016 Vol.
Yes
5,850
$681 Vol.
はい
5,925
$1,169 Vol.
はい
6,000
$1,412 Vol.
はい
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.
マーケット開始日： Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
音量
$6,277終了日
Mar 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.
音量
$6,277終了日
Mar 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 62% implied probability for the S&P 500 finishing the week of March 16 above 6,000, driven primarily by anticipation of the FOMC meeting on March 18-19, where steady 4.25-4.50% fed funds rate and updated dot plot projections could signal fewer 2025 rate cuts amid sticky inflation. Current SPX at 5,982 reflects recent gains from cooling PPI data, but hawkish CPI prints have capped upside, with VIX at 16 signaling moderate volatility. Key risks include Thursday's unemployment claims and Friday's Michigan sentiment; a close above 6,000 requires sustained momentum past resistance at 6,010, while historical March FOMC weeks average +0.8% SPX returns. Trader consensus weighs Fed rhetoric heavily against overbought tech momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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