Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a negative Q1 S&P 500 return at 97.3% implied probability for <0%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of over 4% as of late February amid hotter-than-expected January CPI inflation data—up 3.0% year-over-year versus the anticipated 2.9%—which dashed hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts and pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.3%. A rotation out of overvalued megacap tech stocks, triggered by disappointing earnings from key names like Tesla and Nvidia guidance misses, amplified downside pressure across communication services and consumer discretionary sectors. With mere days until quarter-end on March 31, recovery to breakeven faces steep odds requiring a sustained rally. Upside risks include softer February CPI on February 28 or dovish FOMC signals in March, though trader consensus prices persistent inflation and elevated valuations as dominant headwinds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日0％未満 97.3%
2〜3% <1%
0～2％ <1%
3〜4％ <1%
$299,494 Vol.
$299,494 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
0％未満
97%
0～2％
1%
2〜3%
1%
3〜4％
1%
4-5％
1%
5～6％
<1%
6～8％
<1%
8〜10％
<1%
10％以上
<1%
0％未満 97.3%
2〜3% <1%
0～2％ <1%
3〜4％ <1%
$299,494 Vol.
$299,494 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
0％未満
$37,566 Vol.
97%
0～2％
$11,663 Vol.
1%
2〜3%
$16,147 Vol.
1%
3〜4％
$39,990 Vol.
1%
4-5％
$51,669 Vol.
1%
5～6％
$44,453 Vol.
<1%
6～8％
$56,504 Vol.
<1%
8〜10％
$19,100 Vol.
<1%
10％以上
$22,402 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a negative Q1 S&P 500 return at 97.3% implied probability for <0%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of over 4% as of late February amid hotter-than-expected January CPI inflation data—up 3.0% year-over-year versus the anticipated 2.9%—which dashed hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts and pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.3%. A rotation out of overvalued megacap tech stocks, triggered by disappointing earnings from key names like Tesla and Nvidia guidance misses, amplified downside pressure across communication services and consumer discretionary sectors. With mere days until quarter-end on March 31, recovery to breakeven faces steep odds requiring a sustained rally. Upside risks include softer February CPI on February 28 or dovish FOMC signals in March, though trader consensus prices persistent inflation and elevated valuations as dominant headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
音量
$299,494終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a negative Q1 S&P 500 return at 97.3% implied probability for <0%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of over 4% as of late February amid hotter-than-expected January CPI inflation data—up 3.0% year-over-year versus the anticipated 2.9%—which dashed hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts and pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.3%. A rotation out of overvalued megacap tech stocks, triggered by disappointing earnings from key names like Tesla and Nvidia guidance misses, amplified downside pressure across communication services and consumer discretionary sectors. With mere days until quarter-end on March 31, recovery to breakeven faces steep odds requiring a sustained rally. Upside risks include softer February CPI on February 28 or dovish FOMC signals in March, though trader consensus prices persistent inflation and elevated valuations as dominant headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
音量
$299,494終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a negative Q1 S&P 500 return at 97.3% implied probability for <0%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of over 4% as of late February amid hotter-than-expected January CPI inflation data—up 3.0% year-over-year versus the anticipated 2.9%—which dashed hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts and pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.3%. A rotation out of overvalued megacap tech stocks, triggered by disappointing earnings from key names like Tesla and Nvidia guidance misses, amplified downside pressure across communication services and consumer discretionary sectors. With mere days until quarter-end on March 31, recovery to breakeven faces steep odds requiring a sustained rally. Upside risks include softer February CPI on February 28 or dovish FOMC signals in March, though trader consensus prices persistent inflation and elevated valuations as dominant headwinds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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