Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83% implied probability to Silver (SI) March settlement below $75, anchored by current Comex March 2025 futures trading near $32 per ounce—well below historical peaks—as industrial demand from solar panels and electronics provides steady support but faces offsets from a firm U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields above 4%. Recent Federal Reserve minutes revealed divisions on the pace of rate cuts, dampening precious metals enthusiasm after a post-September policy easing rally, while COMEX inventories show modest builds. The secondary $75-$80 outcome at 8.8% prices tail risks from supply deficits or escalated geopolitics, with upcoming CPI data and nonfarm payrolls as pivotal catalysts for futures pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日75ドル未満 83%
75〜80ドル 8.3%
$80~$85 2.4%
85〜90ドル 1.4%
$210,621 Vol.
$210,621 Vol.
75ドル未満
83%
75〜80ドル
8%
$80~$85
2%
85〜90ドル
1%
$90〜$95
1%
$95〜$100
<1%
$100〜$105
<1%
$105-$110
1%
$110〜$115
<1%
115ドル超
<1%
75ドル未満 83%
75〜80ドル 8.3%
$80~$85 2.4%
85〜90ドル 1.4%
$210,621 Vol.
$210,621 Vol.
75ドル未満
83%
75〜80ドル
8%
$80~$85
2%
85〜90ドル
1%
$90〜$95
1%
$95〜$100
<1%
$100〜$105
<1%
$105-$110
1%
$110〜$115
<1%
115ドル超
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
マーケット開始日: Mar 3, 2026, 2:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83% implied probability to Silver (SI) March settlement below $75, anchored by current Comex March 2025 futures trading near $32 per ounce—well below historical peaks—as industrial demand from solar panels and electronics provides steady support but faces offsets from a firm U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields above 4%. Recent Federal Reserve minutes revealed divisions on the pace of rate cuts, dampening precious metals enthusiasm after a post-September policy easing rally, while COMEX inventories show modest builds. The secondary $75-$80 outcome at 8.8% prices tail risks from supply deficits or escalated geopolitics, with upcoming CPI data and nonfarm payrolls as pivotal catalysts for futures pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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