Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Munich high of 14°C at 32% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicating mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, with southerly flows bringing warmer air masses. Recent DWD updates confirm above-seasonal norms, with March 24 projections averaging 13-15°C amid low precipitation risk. Higher outcomes (16°C+) hinge on Foehn winds accelerating downslope from the Alps for adiabatic warming, while lower probabilities (12°C or below) depend on any upstream cold front timing or increased cloud cover disrupting insolation. Uncertainty stems from model spread in 72-hour outlooks, typical for spring volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月24日のミュンヘンの最高気温は?
3月24日のミュンヘンの最高気温は?
14℃ 36%
15℃ 23%
13℃ 22%
16℃以上 20%
6℃以下
1%
7°C
1%
8℃
1%
9°C
9%
10°C
2%
11°C
12%
12°C
16%
13℃
22%
14℃
32%
15℃
22%
16℃以上
20%
14℃ 36%
15℃ 23%
13℃ 22%
16℃以上 20%
6℃以下
1%
7°C
1%
8℃
1%
9°C
9%
10°C
2%
11°C
12%
12°C
16%
13℃
22%
14℃
32%
15℃
22%
16℃以上
20%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Munich high of 14°C at 32% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicating mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, with southerly flows bringing warmer air masses. Recent DWD updates confirm above-seasonal norms, with March 24 projections averaging 13-15°C amid low precipitation risk. Higher outcomes (16°C+) hinge on Foehn winds accelerating downslope from the Alps for adiabatic warming, while lower probabilities (12°C or below) depend on any upstream cold front timing or increased cloud cover disrupting insolation. Uncertainty stems from model spread in 72-hour outlooks, typical for spring volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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